Thread by @kaiynne

One month later, checking in. Balance of probabilities definitely shifting towards bear market, but I don’t think we have confirmation yet.

https://twitter.com/kaiynne/status/1396052975823380483

In late May we were in -40% now -50%+, the further we go the more unusual this would be in historical terms as a bull market correction. But this is already historically a weird bull market.

A few points that really stand out and may have head faked the OG’s. I will mainly focus on BTC here. The biggest imo is the ATH->ATH ratio.
’11 ->’13 ratio ~30x
’13 -> ’17 ratio ~20x
’17 -> ’21 ratio ~3x 🤯

ATH to ATH time.
’11 ->’13 time 30 months
’13 -> ’17 time 24 months
’17 -> ’21 time 40 months

This will likely delayed due to the march ’20 Black Thursday covid crash so not super out of line.

Time between Old ATH surpassed to new ATH.
’13 - 8months
’17 - 8 months
’21 - 4 months

I think this combined with the ATH ratio being compressed really threw people off, again assuming this is not just a dip on the way to 250k.

The issue with trying to draw conclusions from this is that we have too few data points. But for me the confirmation of the ’18 bear came in July when we failed for the third time to establish a trend reversal.

We went sideways for four months and then nuked down in late November. But in all of that we still ended up 3x the previous ATH. But this time we are only 150% up from the ’17 high???

If we bottom out around 30k and then trade sideways again for a while my best guess is we are waiting for true capitulation, which would be 15-20k.

On the other hand if we bounce off 30k and start to grind back up then it could just be an anomalously big bull market dip. But everything about this cycle has been either such longer or much shorter than previous cycles. Maybe that is just the market getting more efficient?

Probably the only bright spot here for the Ethereum crowd is that with scaling getting closer, I fully expect we see a countercyclical reallocation towards ETH and DeFi similar to what we saw in 2019.

That said until we get another heavy rejection of a move back to 40k I still think there is a reasonable chance this is a bullish lull. But if you are over exposed and not ready to ride out a 24+ month winter I would start preparing.

One final toppish signal, is the huge raises almost always occur post ATH. Mainly because funds have closed based on bull fomo and are looking to allocate. We have seen some monster raises the last month or so which is a bit worrying.

Oops sorry 4x12 is 48 not 24… 13-17 was 48 months 😬