The race is on! The declining COST of wind and solar power is in a race with declining MARKET VALUE: which will win? New research in Joule looks at trends by region, at emp.lbl.gov/news/declining… THREAD!
While solar has high value at low penetrations, value falls as output grows – solar is 19% of generation in CAISO, with major drops in value. Wind has low value at every penetration, but has faced less value decline with market share to date. 2/x
The biggest value penalties come from the timing of generation not matching high market prices, and from congestion causing pockets of low prices. Curtailment was not a major factor. Value penalties rise with market share. 3/x
The good news is that the COST of wind and solar has fallen faster than its VALUE. But how long can that continue? What happens if future value falls below cost?
Strategies to minimize value decline must be matched with its cause in each region. New transmission will relieve congestion penalties. Storage or flexible demand will help with the timing penalty. 5/x
Solar developers are responding by pairing #solarenergy with batteries in “hybrid” plants. Wind developers are using larger blades to shift output to more hours. Vehicle and building electrification may change the game altogether.
6/x
For the full analysis of the race between COST and VALUE of wind and solar, see the @BerkeleyLab research in the journal Joule at emp.lbl.gov/news/declining…. /end
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As the line to connect generation projects to the grid gets longer, interconnection costs are going up. We collected and analyzed data from the PJM interconnect, our second analysis in a series exploring interconnection costs. Thread… emp.lbl.gov/interconnectio…
Interconnection costs are the upgrades to the grid to accommodate new generation, like new wires, transformers, substations, and broader upgrades to the transmission network. In PJM, most of these costs are borne by developers and can make or break a project. 3/x
The power plant of the future is a hybrid – generation plus storage. Batteries help smooth the output of solar and wind, increasing their value, but raise key questions about grid operations. In a new report we round up our body of research on hybrids. Our TOP TEN findings... 🧵
1) By the end of 2021, there was more than 8,000 MW of wind or solar generation connected to storage in the US. But interconnection queues show thousands of projects proposed, with 280 GIGAWATTS of solar paired with 208 GW of batteries. Other pairings are also possible. 3/x
Our update on the grid interconnection queues is out, and folks, we are in new territory. Terawatt territory. THREAD! emp.lbl.gov/queues
There is now a staggering 1.4 TERAWATTS of generation and storage capacity in interconnection queues in the US – more than the capacity of ALL existing power plants – though most will not be built. For full data and more, see QUEUED UP at emp.lbl.gov/queues. 2/x
As of the end of 2021, there were over 8,100 projects seeking interconnection in the US, with over 1,000 GW of generation and 427 GW of storage.
The enormous queues show strong commercial interest in new development, with over $2 TRILLION in potential investment. 3/x
We have new data on utility interconnection queues! THREAD! There is now over 750 GW of generation and 200 GW of storage capacity in interconnection queues in the US – a new record. For full data and more, see QUEUED UP at emp.lbl.gov/publications/q…. 1/x
To put that in perspective, the US had a total of 1,117 GW of utility-scale capacity operating last year. While not all projects will get built, it shows strong commercial interest in new development. See the interactive data visualization at emp.lbl.gov/publications/q… 2/x
Solar and wind dominate the queues. Solar is booming, and increasingly paired with storage. Wind queues are consistent around 200 GW, while gas projects in queues have declined. Including estimated battery capacity for some hybrid projects, proposed storage exceeds 200 GW. 3/x
THREAD: In 2005, the official Annual Energy Outlook saw power sector CO2 rising from 2,400 to 3,000 MMT by 2020. But actual emissions fell to 1,450 MMT, 52% below projected levels. A new @BerkeleyLab report looks at how we got “halfway to zero.” emp.lbl.gov/publications/h… 1/11
The biggest change was drastically less demand for electricity, due in part to sectoral and economic changes, but also to greater energy efficiency driven by policies and technology advancement. Instead of rising by 24% it was dead flat. 2/11
And as demand stayed flat, cheaper natural gas from the shale gas revolution combined with the rapid growth of wind and solar power to squeeze out coal. Some nuclear retirements were offset by greater output at existing plants. 3/11
The new @BerkeleyLab compilation of utility-scale #solar data and trends is out! A briefing slide deck, data file, maps, and data visualizations can all be found at utilityscalesolar.lbl.gov.
Here are some highlights → THREAD
More than 4.5 GW of utility-scale (>5 MW) solar came online in 2019, bringing cumulative capacity to 29 GW. Projects are spread across all 10 regions that we track, though more heavily concentrated in the sunniest regions. Maps and data available at utilityscalesolar.lbl.gov. 2/x
The median installed cost of new projects in 2019 fell to $1.4/W-AC, down 20% from 2018 and more than 70% from 2010. 77% of projects and 88% of capacity added in 2019 used single-axis tracking. More details in the new @BerkeleyLab data resource at utilityscalesolar.lbl.gov. 3/x