Norwich have signed forward Milot Rashica ("hra-SHEET-sa") from Werder Bremen for €11m. We've been following him since 2015 – and he hasn't been as productive lately as he was in 2018-19. Let's find out why not.
Stats at a Premier League standard:
1/x
As you can see above, Rashica has played mainly as a striker for Werder Bremen, with great skill in 1v1s but declining attacking output. His style hasn't changed much, but his passing has gotten less aggressive and his dribbling has declined a little bit:
2/x
The share of Rashica's ball progression contributions from receiving doubled since 2018-19, while the share from passing is about the same. The remainder is his individual actions – so he's not taking the ball forward and winning as many duels as he used to:
3/x
How much of the change in Rashica's output has come from positioning? Let's compare his smartermaps. In 2018-19 most of his touches were in the attacking half, and he worked more on the flank. In 2020-21 he had to play deeper and bring the ball out as Werder struggled.
4/x
So Rashica was attempting the same mix of actions but in different positions, much a result of his team being on the back foot a lot. Could the same thing happen at Norwich, if they have a rough campaign in the Premier League again? Here's what happened with Emi Buendía:
5/x
Again, on the smartermaps you can see how Buendía was pushed further back in the Premier League than in the EFL Championship. So Rashica may find himself restrained depending on how the other guys in Norwich's squad perform. But he's always been an exciting talent, so 👀.
6/6
P.S. The Premier League hasn't seen a player quite like Rashica in quite a while. Forwards with similar styles include Wahbi Khazri and Naïm Sliti... looking to score or assist in equal measure, lots of dribbling, aggressive defending. Rashica isn't a 1-for-1 Buendía replacement!
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
First off, the basics. Vlahović has a total of 13 non-penalty goals and assists in about 3,000 league minutes over two seasons at Juventus. (Juventus! In Serie A!) You don't need fancy stats to say that's not too impressive. But let's look at the fancy stats anyway....
2/n
Vlahović's attacking output in our models has actually declined since he left Fiorentina. His ball retention has also been decidedly lousy. So what's special about him? He's an avid defender and a great finisher. But let's find out just why he looks like such a deadeye....
Chelsea's new owners spent more than £550m in the transfer market – what did they get, and how have the players performed?
We start at the top with Enzo Fernández. Though his attacking output is down, his numbers are similar to at Benfica:
1/n
Next, Wesley Fofana. He has also looked good, though not quite as good as at Leicester. And playing wide in a back three tends to boost metrics (more attacking opportunities, fewer backstop defending plays):
2/n
Mykhailo Mudryk. There was supposedly a battle to sign him, but we warned about his poor finishing. Pretty sure we got that one right. But even his underlying attacking output is way down from Shakhtar.
He's now 23 and was never flagged as a smarterscout young prospect. His attacking output was decent last season (even at Atleti!), but he rarely got shots off for a striker. His finishing and skills are so-so at a Premier League standard:
1/n
A big reason behind the drop in João Félix's attacking output this season has been lower shot quality. But his shots were never so great for a striker – we'd want to see something more like 0.15 to 0.20 xG per shot:
2/n
Here are João Félix's shot maps in open play from this season and last at striker. Lots of lousy long-range efforts and, when he's successful, finishes from the edge of the six-yard box. Feast or famine.
THREAD: Where does Enzo Fernández fit in at Chelsea?
We flagged him as a smarterscout young prospect in 2021 with Defensa y Justicia, and just two years later he's a World Cup winner heading for the Premier League. His overall stats at a PL standard are amazing:
The main caution with Enzo Fernández is that his skill ratings are pretty average for the Premier League so far. But he's an aggressive player on both sides of the ball. He's a very attacking DM, involved in the majority of Benfica's goals when on the pitch:
2/n
But the majority of Enzo Fernández's attacking comes from incisive passing – he hardly gets into the box at all, as our smartermap shows:
A short thread on Casemiro. At age 30, he's still a very aggressive defender with high ball retention and good attacking output at a Premier League standard. But his defending quality has been dropping, and he's been relatively worse in the #UCL.
Casemiro covers a lot of ground but stayed quite central for Real Madrid last season. He doesn't come out to cover on the flanks very often, and he rarely gets in to the box. That doesn't stop him from taking pot shots, though....
2/4
Right now Casemiro has a lot in common with countryman Fernandinho in his early 30s. Casemiro is better in the air but worse in 1v1s. He also dribbles less and does more progressive passing than Fernandinho did back then.
THREAD: Ryan Gravenberch gets the start today for the Oranje. The 19-year-old Ajax phenom and smarterscout young prospect had an amazing breakout season. Apart from aerials in open play, there's not a bad number on here. Stats at a #UCL standard: 🔥🙇♂️🚀
1/4
Gravenberch operated mostly on the left for Ajax, and we'll expect to see him working there in a two again today. He's got a wide range of passes but is a storming dribbler up the left channel. He takes corners from both sides, too. Multitalented, you might say...
2/4
Oh, and Gravenberch can score from outside the box in open play, too. He's 19 years old, people.