Better from England, but still going to have to improve a lot further to be real contenders.
Of course. But since they also thought tough talk led to the success of the Northern Ireland protocol in the first place there is probably no escape from the UK government belief in talking tough. Never mind that the protocol was not in fact renegotiated.
It might actually be that eventually the UK government wins the battle to move sausages from Great Britain to Northern Ireland, and the protocol otherwise remains exactly as was. In that situation, who won?
So much more still to learn about negotiating with the EU. Today's lesson may well be that resolution of single issues is entirely possible but time consuming and distracting from the bigger issues you had hoped to solve.
So back to the main business of the day. How little do we still know about how the EU operates five years after voting to leave it? As it happens this day five years ago I was probably fielding calls from the US complaining about the EU being horrible negotiators...

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More from @DavidHenigUK

24 Jun
I still hear from UK government denial of basic global trade principles:

- gravity
- divergence means trade barriers
- equivalence scarcely reduces said barriers
- tariff removal isn't free trade

And that precludes serious engagement with business or experts who understand.
In the minds of the UK government there is some magic bullet that the EU is denying called equivalence, where everyone has their own rules but there are no checks or barriers on trade.

Trouble is it doesn't exist anywhere.
What I hear repeatedly from businesses is that there are many officials who do understand global trade or are starting to do so, but that they can only make a difference in the margins because ministers won't drop the fantasy trade world.
Read 8 tweets
24 Jun
I see the usual suspects are already saying the EU has backed down over the Northern Ireland protocol, notwithstanding that the UK's stated aim of fundamental renegotiation has yet again failed. EUphobia and Boris-worship are two strong drugs.
As a wise man said, while the EU can be flexible on small details like sausages and keep the overall protocol structure intact they will be quite happy. And for the UK and unionists - well saying no is not really a sufficient negotiating position.
NB because wasn't clear who I'm suggesting as an EUphobe it certainly isn't @Mij_Europe - we don't fully agree on the interpretation of the latest NI protocol moves but I think we have mutual respect as fellow analysts. Thinking the rather more partisan types.
Read 4 tweets
24 Jun
Was always likely that some EU roaming charges would be reintroduced, this is only for high amounts of data usage but expect others to follow slowly.
Trade deals being mostly about tariff reduction can't ultimately fully deal with issues like mobile phone roaming (and many other complex trade barriers). That's why they have limited economic impact compared to single markets.
Here we go, the end of free mobile phone roaming from the UK into Europe, as widely predicted. And to note therefore that the section on this within the UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement proved to be of no assistance. bbc.co.uk/news/technolog…
Read 5 tweets
23 Jun
So much for the great renegotiation.
A UK-EU relationship stuck between the dream of divergence and the reality of the large neighbouring power, with the Northern Ireland protocol as only the most visible sign of this. It carries on like this until the government understands the problem. None have in 5 years.
In his way only Boris Johnson can hold this Brexit together. Because the contradiction between promise* and reality is otherwise unbridgeable, as we saw before 2019.

* - the promise of total freedom from the EU, not necessarily of non-membership
Read 10 tweets
22 Jun
We should worry that MPs didn't understand how treaties worked when they voted for such an important one, and even more that it isn't obvious they understand them better now.
In two years time MPs may be saying they didn't understand the UK-Australia trade deal was actually a treaty that we couldn't just break when we felt like it. Or CPTPP perhaps.
I don't think Parliament and the Select Committee system as currently constituted is fit to scrutinise the complex realities of modern government, notwithstanding the fine work of many at all levels. Add another to the 'too difficult' pile though.
Read 4 tweets
22 Jun
Seeing a lot of suggestions that UK negotiators can't be very good because we didn't get a good deal from the EU or Australia. Which is to assume that the main problems in negotiations is the other side.

It isn't. Negotiating with your own side is much harder.
Let us say, hypothetically, that a Prime Minister is primarily concerned with completing a deal, doesn't really care about the details, just wants it done. And the other side knows that. Your objectives are set, there isn't a lot you can do about it.
There is nothing more important in negotiations that having detailed objectives with widespread internal support. That takes some doing.

Then getting everyone, including political leaders, to stick to them. Under pressure. That's really hard.
Read 4 tweets

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