2/ Early on I try to identify direct competitors and their historic performance, any new supply, any major known changes to market demand drivers (e.g., ‘the factory’s closing’), and any major new developments.
3/ I also try and get a quick handle on what other developable land is zoned for hotel, so I can figure out potential future supply. During this time, I’m looking for major employers and any info on travel dynamics I can get. This is my “desktop” screen.
4/ Next step is to go in-market. Here I’ll drive EVERY INCH to see what site access and visibility are like, what demand drivers are most proximate, how my site’s accessibility to those drivers compares to my comps.
5/ I’ll start pulling into local office parks and writing down the name(s) of every business listed. I’ll look for construction sites, meet the chamber of commerce, read the local paper.
6/ Every meal is at a different local restaurant, and always at the bar – I’m always talking to the bartender / server about what’s happening in the area. If possible, I like to meet the GMs of competitive hotels to hear anything they’ll tell me.
7/ In short, I’m just trying to get a feel for the place, you know?
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1/56 SomeHotelGuy’s take on Sonder. Quick disclaimer – I have nothing to do with Sonder, I’m not particularly smart, and I’m in no way a securities analyst. This isn’t investment advice.
2/56 My goal here is to look at the investor presentation and see where things don’t quite add up from a traditional hotel perspective. Maybe there’s knowledge outside this deck that causes it to make more sense, but if so I don’t have it. I’m going to try hard not to be a jerk
3/56 So let’s kick off!
Pg 9. “50% Operating cost reduction” – footnote says, “Versus traditional hotel operating costs.” That’s some real, real good data sourcing and backup. What costs, from what basis, compared to what competitors?
1/7 I spend a lot of time talking numbers, metrics, and cost savings, so it’s time for a thread on what this is all about – hospitality.
2/7 As hoteliers, we are in the business of hospitality… of warm, sincere welcomes; of kind, helpful interactions; of thoughtful, creative problem solving; of surprise, of delight.
3/7 We should let technology aid our mission – mitigating the transactional to focus on the emotional, easing communication and interaction, or smoothing out wrinkles in a guest’s stay – but not be our mission.
1/24 De-Risking Hotel Acquisitions: Thread 5 – Expenses (our denouement)
We’ve talked along the way about expenses obliquely – shifting business mix to bring down reservations costs, slimming down or eliminating room service, considering meal periods, outsourcing parking, etc.
2/24 , but now it’s time to focus fully on the expense side of the ledger. Again, each project is different and there is only so much one can do to identify, understand, and “box in” the risks, but here are some of the areas I focus on and what I look for.
3/24 Staffing. Staffing expenses are massive at hotels – upwards of 70% of your OpEx is staffing.
2/27 We’re going to start with Banquets + Catering (B+C) revenues, then hit on the small F+B sources – minibar and in-room dining (IRD) – and then move on to other revenues.
3/27 Since we’re trying to hit a bunch of things and I’ve been exceptionally long winded (2021 goal – learn how to edit writing for Twitter) I’ll try to be a bit more concise on each.
1/25 De-Risking Hotel Acquisitions Thread 3: Business Plan, F+B Outlets
Now that we’ve talked Occ + ADR, let’s talk about some of the more fun areas of a hotel – the F+B outlets. Full Disclosure – I’m not a “restaurant and bar guy” professionally.
2/25 I work closely with them on hotel acquisitions and developments, and have learned quite a bit about how they think about outlets, but I’m not an expert here (other than at the eating and drinking part – I’m seriously, seriously good at that).
3/25 Hopefully some actual experts step in to correct me where I’m wrong, and to fill in the inevitable gaps! Tomorrow, we’ll hit on banquets + catering, then the smaller departments (in-room dining / mini-bar) and other revenue opportunities.
1/20 De-Risking Hotel Acquisitions Thread 2: Business Plan, Top-Line
We’ve already talked a bit about underwriting, both top-line and expenses, but here’s where we’ll try and connect the numbers to actual business planning.
2/20 Each potential acquisition presents a different turnaround story, and those stories are myriad and varied. For our purposes, we’ll try to hit on a wide variety of items that will help us find and confirm our turnaround story. This one will focus on Occ + Rate.
3/20 Once I’ve established where my post-renovation hotel should sit within its competitive set, I need to start finding the business to get there. What types of customers are in the market, and what drives them, are the first two questions I need to answer.