Thread by @ArmsControlWonk

Last week, Iran conducted a failed space launch. Iran is now getting ready to try again. @DaveSchmerler and I worked it all out with open sources, then @ZcohenCNN got the Pentagon to confirm it. A short OSINT thread. 1/10

Last week, @DaveSchmerler noticed that a June 6 image of the Imam Khomeini Spaceport from @Maxar showed indicators that are normally associated with space launches in Iran. These are the same signatures that we used to predict previous space launches. 2/10

One of those signatures is a lot of vehicles showing up at the horizontal checkout building. On June 6, there were more than a dozen vehicles there -- something that only happens before space launches. 3/10

Another signature was specialized equipment at the mobile launch gantry including two specific vehicles and a mobile work platform. We never see this equipment except before space launches. 4/10

We then took another look at an image from @planet on June 1 and saw fuel containers, as well as a possible oxidizer container. Again, there is only one reason to bring so much fuel to the site. 5/10

This large gantry has been used only for the Simorgh SLV. Iran had already announced as many as three Simorgh SLV launches this year, which we knew because ... did I mention we're writing a book on Iran's space program? 6/10
mehrnews.com/news/5137592/.

And then ... nothing. Iran did not announce a launch. @18SPCS didn't add an Iranian satellite to the catalogue of space objects. And when we got a new images from @planet and @maxar there was much less activity at the launch site. We were pretty sure the launch failed. 7/10

At about the same time, @jcm4589 contacted me and asked if I had heard any rumors about a failed space launch somewhere in the world. My jaw about hit the floor. There is a reason we all read Jonathan's Space Report. 8/10
planet4589.org/space/jsr/late…

Dave and I then worked with the amazing @ZcohenCNN, who got the Pentagon to confirm "the Iranian rocket launch failure which occurred early June 12th." Boy, that felt good to confirm what we thought we saw in the satellite images. 9/10
cnn.com/2021/06/22/pol…

But the story isn't over. Because on June 20, @planet imaged the site again. A support vehicle and the mobile work platform are back at the gantry and there is another load of fuel (and possibly oxidizer) on site. The Iranians are going to try again! OSINT is wild. 10/10