Thread by @ryanl_hass

1/ I found this article, and particularly the comments by Victor Gao, interesting. Gao's conclusion: “In the long term, China will have a larger economy than the US — no one can change that. Time is on China’s side.”
ft.com/content/0da3c2…

2/ I've heard often from PRC counterparts recently that Beijing must persist on its course in the face of external criticism. Soon enough, they say, PRC will overtake US in economic size and others will be forced to accept China's newfound role and influence. cc: @PeterMartin_PCM

3/ I'm concerned PRC leaders may be setting up unrealizable expectations for impact that GDP measures will have on perceptions of overall national power & global influence. The geopolitical tides will not suddenly start flowing in Beijing's direction if/when its GDP surpasses US.

4/ Many PRC officials and members of the public are justifiably proud of the country's accomplishments in recent decades. China's rise has been historic. The country will not be pushed backward or contained within its borders. I expect its rise will continue.

5/ But, as @Ali_Wyne and I recently argued, economic heft doesn't immediately yield diplomatic stature. Though the US overtook the UK in overall economic size in the late 19th century, it did not emerge as world’s preeminent power until the end of WW 2. foreignpolicy.com/2021/06/09/chi…

6/ And the combined size of democratic economies will exceed China’s gross domestic product for many decades yet. 9 of the world’s 10 largest economies are democracies. China's tradition of non-alignment will place limits on the depth and strength of its external relationships.

7/ If China's leading thinkers imply to public that the world will change the day after China's economy surpasses US, they risk sowing the seeds of future frustration, with potentially problematic consequences if such sentiments get channeled into nationalistic grievances. END.