A short thread..
Somethings that some institutions definitely get while some do not, and therefore some non institutional investors don't get while some do:
/1
Somethings that some institutions definitely get while some do not, and therefore some non institutional investors don't get while some do:
/1
Think of a website with room for four advertisements but only two are taken (for example).
This leads to lower CPMs in short term as well as slack.
But advertising follows eyeballs (just ask the $FB bears in 2010).
/2
This leads to lower CPMs in short term as well as slack.
But advertising follows eyeballs (just ask the $FB bears in 2010).
/2
The eyeballs are on streaming TV and they are coming from (1) linear TV (2) AND the web.
As @theinformation noted today, 12% of YouTube ads used to be viewed on CTV. Now they are at 40%.
/3
As @theinformation noted today, 12% of YouTube ads used to be viewed on CTV. Now they are at 40%.
/3
The path forward for CTV ad rates and ad load will follow the same path as the Internet and then apps.
- 1998: No one needs the web for ads, newspapers have the power.
Wrong.
2010: No one needs apps and social media, the web has all the power.
Wrong.
/4
- 1998: No one needs the web for ads, newspapers have the power.
Wrong.
2010: No one needs apps and social media, the web has all the power.
Wrong.
/4
As $ROKU CEO says, it's not that some ads will flow from linear to streaming, it's that *all* ads will flow from linear to streaming.
/5
/5
The Internet created an amazing opportunity for advertisers -- measure ability!
How many ppl see an ad on a newspaper?🤷♂️
How many ppl see an ad on the web? 👌
/6
How many ppl see an ad on a newspaper?🤷♂️
How many ppl see an ad on the web? 👌
/6
Then...
*Who* sees an ad on the Internet? 🤷♂️
Who sees an ad on an app or social media? 👌
/7
*Who* sees an ad on the Internet? 🤷♂️
Who sees an ad on an app or social media? 👌
/7
Now...
Who sees an ad on TV? 🤷♂️
Who sees an ad on CTV? 👌
/8
Who sees an ad on TV? 🤷♂️
Who sees an ad on CTV? 👌
/8
Better technology leads to more users.
Mobile apps are better than mobile web for users.
Streaming TV is better than linear TV for users.
/9
Mobile apps are better than mobile web for users.
Streaming TV is better than linear TV for users.
/9
The eyeballs are already on CTV and booming in growth, *just like* the eyeballs moved to the web from newspapers (1998) and to social media and apps from the web (2010).
/10
/10
This isn't complicated analysis.
There is a sort of stubbornness inate to some media analysts that we saw in 1998 and 2010 and now.
The change isn't coming.
The change has come.
/11
There is a sort of stubbornness inate to some media analysts that we saw in 1998 and 2010 and now.
The change isn't coming.
The change has come.
/11
Demand will rise to meet eyeballs just like 1998. Just like 2010.
Usage will rise for CTV.
Ad rates will rise for CTV.
Ad load will rise for CTV.
/12
Usage will rise for CTV.
Ad rates will rise for CTV.
Ad load will rise for CTV.
/12
That means ARPU will rise on two factors and that ARPU will drive more dollars *also* due to more, ya know, 'U's.
/13
/13
Pick a handful of stocks. Whichever you like, and expose yourself to coinciding bullish thematics.
This is happening.
Analysts that are behind are wrong.
They were wrong in 1998.
They were wrong in 2010.
They were and are wrong in 2016 and now.
/14
This is happening.
Analysts that are behind are wrong.
They were wrong in 1998.
They were wrong in 2010.
They were and are wrong in 2016 and now.
/14
So, don't be wrong.
/15
/15
Somehow this is missing form the thread so...
"The amount of slack in demand for CTV ads is still profound. It's not a supply thing, it's a demand thing."
This is why that slack will turn into dollars.
16/16
"The amount of slack in demand for CTV ads is still profound. It's not a supply thing, it's a demand thing."
This is why that slack will turn into dollars.
16/16
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