Thread by @SeanTrende

So on the "Who is writing Brnovich" Kremlinology, SCOTUS tries to keep the opinion writing even over time, with each Justice getting an opinion every sitting (or so). Given that, we can start to determine who has which outstanding opinions (it's like an LSAT logic puzzle!) 1/

Brnovich concerns the standard for a Voting Rights Act claim, so it has the potential for a blockbuster. And there are three justices who haven't had an opinion that month: Breyer, Kavanaugh and Alito. 2/

Needless to say, those three are likely to produce very different opinions. Breyer would write an opinion that is narrow, perhaps decided on standing grounds, or very fact specific (sort of like what happened in Fulton, the Philly adoption agency case). 3/

But Breyer has authored six opinions this sitting, which is going to be the average for these justices. It's conceivable he got the opinion here, but not terribly likely. 4/

That leaves Kav and Alito. Alito has authored 4 opinions this term, Kavanaugh 5. Realistically it could be either of them. But there's a theory that Alito's lengthy dissent in Fulton was originally a majority opinion. If this is true, both would have had 5 opinions as of Feb.

Sorry four opinions. So a lot comes down to whether you buy this theory or not. Is it Kav or Alito? If Alito didn't originally have Fulton, he most likely has this case. If he did, I would guess this is Kav's. So maybe 10/45/45 on Breyer/Kav/Alito. One other thing though. 6/

The Chief loves to write on VRA/14th Amendment claims. He gets first pick of cases, so he's taken things like Shelby County, Parents Involved, etc. It's hard for me to imagine he'd pass on this one, especially if Fulton were a dud to begin with 7/

Maybe if it's a narrow ruling he'd give it to Kav, to allow him to write an opinion that's appealing to liberals, relatively speaking. But another option is that the Chief isn't in the majority and didn't assign, and that the five to his right are going Leeroy Jenkins. 8/

So I guess I'd be 10% Breyer on very narrow/standing grounds, 40% Kav writing a modestly conservative opinion, 25% Alito writing a modestly conservative 6-3 opinion, 25% Alito writing a strongly conservative 5-4 or 5-1-3 opinion. 9/9