Thread by @JamalMOsman

In #Ethiopia’s northern Tigray Region, the situation is so complex that it could prolong the war and the suffering of civilians. There are multiple battles with several actors - who don’t all have the same objectives. This will make any future peace deal much more difficult. 1/

#Ethiopian military is fighting to destroy the TPLF - a group that led Ethiopia for 27 years and committed atrocities against its citizens and they are hated by most Ethiopians. But the killing of civilians in Tigray means Ethiopian military will be seen as an occupying force. 2/

Eritrean forces are fighting to weaken & eliminate the threat from Tigray. They were once allies against the Derg Regime but the TPLF turned on their former comrades and Eritreans suffered. Now, Eritreans have the upper hand and are allegedly committing atrocities in Tigray. 3/

It seems that this is more than rivalry - there's deep hatred between Eritreans and Tigrayans that the cycle of violence is likely to continue. 4/

Amhara forces, who are neighbours of Tigray, say they are fighting to ‘reclaim’ territories that were 'stolen' from them during the TPLF-rule. Dispute over territories is common in Ethiopia - so it seems that there are other issues at stake. 5/

Historically, #Ethiopian leaders came from Amhara or Tigray and they have always been competing on who should rule Ethiopia. And more recently, Amharas, like most other communities, suffered under the TPLF-regime - so it's in their interest to dismantle Tigray. 6/

Meanwhile, there’s a battle within the Tigray leaders; between the old guards of TPLF and the TDF (Tigray Defence Forces). TDF, led by former Chief of Staff General Tsadkan, is more popular. The General was a top TPLF guy but later fell out with them and spent time in jail. 7/

Gen Tsadkan and other TDF commanders are hostile to the TPLF and have a huge support in Tigray. There’s also a clear ideological differences; the TDF is fighting to breakaway from Ethiopia while TPLF leaders want to remain part of Ethiopia. 8/

Contextualising the conflict in Tigray is very important. Each group is pushing a particular narrative and that's unlikely to bring peace.
What may bring a lasting peace, however, is seeing and hearing from all perspectives while considering historical grievances. 9/

Minor correction: General Tsadkan spent time in exile.