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David Henig Profile picture
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25 Jun, 4 tweets, 2 min read
A good mini-thread. My view, both the EU and UK are misreading the current fundamental positions of the other (single market for EU, right to diverge for the UK) but various trade / economic / geopolitical realities prevent relationship breakdown, especially Northern Ireland.
At a global level the US wants EU / UK cooperation. In terms of trade and economics so do UK business. The NI protocol requires it. But the UK isn't going to align, or the EU accept the UK's globally novel equivalence idea.
All of which I think leaves us currently doomed to endlessly repeat a UK / EU argument / deal loop. Fractious and unstable, and yet also oddly stable. Glass half full and half empty at the same time. No absolute victory for either possible.
Muck acknowledge a debt to @Sime0nStylites for helping think about the nature of the UK-EU relationship. All mistakes etc still my own of course...

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More from @DavidHenigUK

David Henig Profile picture
26 Jun
Wales better so far
Good Danish goal after a good period for them. Wales looking shaky now.
Incidentally can't help thinking if this was England there would be more of a fuss about only Danish fans being allowed into the Netherlands
Read 5 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
26 Jun
I think a fair reflection of Lord Frost's views on Brexit, and there are two major points / implications:

1 - that he rejects global trade norms in terms of regulations and borders; and
2 - that any short term price for this is worth paying

detail...

rte.ie/news/analysis-…
On the rejection of global trade norms, this is the key point. Frost and advisors have come to believe that the single market is overly legalistic and there is an alternative, equivalence, that can prevent checks. Major problem is this doesn't exist anywhere in the world. Image
Indeed it is a certainty the UK plan will be rejected by the EU, as similar have been for five years, because it is essentially saying the single market does not require the ECJ or even harmonization. Good luck trying that with any other country as well.
Read 10 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
25 Jun
Friends and family first government.

news.sky.com/story/matt-han…
To be fair I might have a different view if I had some friends in the Cabinet able to throw me a few contracts no questions asked.
The 'rules are for the little people not us' government?
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
24 Jun
I still hear from UK government denial of basic global trade principles:

- gravity
- divergence means trade barriers
- equivalence scarcely reduces said barriers
- tariff removal isn't free trade

And that precludes serious engagement with business or experts who understand.
In the minds of the UK government there is some magic bullet that the EU is denying called equivalence, where everyone has their own rules but there are no checks or barriers on trade.

Trouble is it doesn't exist anywhere.
What I hear repeatedly from businesses is that there are many officials who do understand global trade or are starting to do so, but that they can only make a difference in the margins because ministers won't drop the fantasy trade world.
Read 8 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
24 Jun
I see the usual suspects are already saying the EU has backed down over the Northern Ireland protocol, notwithstanding that the UK's stated aim of fundamental renegotiation has yet again failed. EUphobia and Boris-worship are two strong drugs.
As a wise man said, while the EU can be flexible on small details like sausages and keep the overall protocol structure intact they will be quite happy. And for the UK and unionists - well saying no is not really a sufficient negotiating position.
NB because wasn't clear who I'm suggesting as an EUphobe it certainly isn't @Mij_Europe - we don't fully agree on the interpretation of the latest NI protocol moves but I think we have mutual respect as fellow analysts. Thinking the rather more partisan types.
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
24 Jun
Was always likely that some EU roaming charges would be reintroduced, this is only for high amounts of data usage but expect others to follow slowly.
Trade deals being mostly about tariff reduction can't ultimately fully deal with issues like mobile phone roaming (and many other complex trade barriers). That's why they have limited economic impact compared to single markets.
Here we go, the end of free mobile phone roaming from the UK into Europe, as widely predicted. And to note therefore that the section on this within the UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement proved to be of no assistance. bbc.co.uk/news/technolog…
Read 5 tweets

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