Thread by @DavidHenigUK

I think a fair reflection of Lord Frost's views on Brexit, and there are two major points / implications:

1 - that he rejects global trade norms in terms of regulations and borders; and
2 - that any short term price for this is worth paying

detail...

rte.ie/news/analysis-…

On the rejection of global trade norms, this is the key point. Frost and advisors have come to believe that the single market is overly legalistic and there is an alternative, equivalence, that can prevent checks. Major problem is this doesn't exist anywhere in the world.

Indeed it is a certainty the UK plan will be rejected by the EU, as similar have been for five years, because it is essentially saying the single market does not require the ECJ or even harmonization. Good luck trying that with any other country as well.

Such a view leads Frost to believe the Northern Ireland protocol is unjustified, and caused by the May government accepting the EU view. Which is actually the globally accepted norm in trade. Alignment or border checks. We're back to 2018 again...

This view is also highly problematic, rejecting both countries like the US and Canada with state level laws, and supra-national organisations like the EU or even standard setting bodies. Basically it is far too simplistic for the real world.

In turn any talk of Northern Ireland having the best of both worlds must also be treated with caution according to Frost - and alignment is completely out. The fact this may come at a cost of economic or social damage is obviously just unfortunate in this reading.

But this becomes then the key two paragraphs. The Frost vision is of a UK not living by the same rules as the rest of the world, but, crucially, not actually prepared to follow that through in the only way possible, by walking away. Hence stalemate.

So essentially the Frost doctrine is that the current reality of trade, regulations and checks is wrong, and there is an alternative of divergence and yet no checks.

Unfortunately hardly anyone outside a few around the UK government agree.

So either the EU and rest of the world come into line with the Frost approach to trade. Or, possibly after a while, after economic and political damage, the UK approach is changed in line with the rest of the world.

Realistically, it will be the second.

In short what we have is pure ideological dogma from the UK government over business, the economy, the people of Northern Ireland, the Biden administration, the EU, etc.

That needs to be more widely understood and challenged. /end