Thread by @DougKass

@TSTRMPro
Jun 28, 2021 | 12:51 PM EDT DOUG KASS
We're at a Moment of Unreasonable Confidence
* Is it time to expect the unexpected?
* Too much "group stink" and "first level thinking" has invaded the markets
* As an example, just look at the shares of General Motors ($GM) and

Delta Air Lines ($DAL) - both have been the subject of near universal optimism in the financial media and elsewhere (read: they are rolling over)
* Does it makes sense to be uber confident in view after a near doubling in the averages over the last 16 months?
* Always consider

upside reward vs. downside risk - especially when few others are!

"To expect the unexpected shows a thoroughly modern intellect."
- Oscar Wilde
The pervasive and foul odor of "Group Stink" continues.
Importantly it is being delivered with extreme confidence and lives in a

fully invested state.
Massive agreement can be unhealthy to your investment portfolio.
Most average, plain vanilla institutional investors -- as well as many large hedge funds -- basically are optimistic on the markets, the opening of the global economies -- they materially

resemble each other with essentially the same portfolio construct.
That construct typically includes FAANG plus (MSFT) , accounting for about one third of their portfolios. Add in some quality growth like Home Depot (HD) , Federal Express (FDX) , Visa (V) , Goldman Sachs (GS) ,

General Motors, a couple of oils (as they have been performing well) and any of a number of "opening trades" (like Delta Air Lines, Hilton (HLT) , etc.). -- and most portfolios are fairly correlated with each other.
The herd is increasingly crowded and outside-of-consensus

animals are few and far between.
There are no critters, save, literally the Perma Bears who are fearful of a large market drawdown. Nor are many of the Bulls concerned that the S&P Index has nearly doubled since March, 2020. A panelist on Fast Money Halftime just said

(hyperbolically) that we should totally disregard the lows of 16 months ago.
Beware of this optimism, hubris and similarly situated portfolio composition at this late stage of the markets.
Overconfidence is the way to give your soul and your portfolio to the devil an inch at

a time.
Ms Market often bites confident consensus views and construct in their collective asses - like the Cossacks, I see her in the not so distant horizon.
Probably sooner than later. @jimcramer @tomkeene @WilfredFrost @SquawkCNBC @cnbcfastmoney @guyadami @terranovajoe