@realmoney
May 06, 2021 | 03:30 PM EDT DOUG KASS
A Few Naive Questions About 'Transitory'
How is "transitory" inflation (high) price stability? Is the Fed violating a core tenet of its mandate? Can they make their own mandate now?
If "transitory" inflation is OK, why isn't
transitory deflation OK? Isn't transitory deflation what their "models" should have suggested with regard to COVID? Virus goes away, economy recovers. Don't need a model. Bridge the gap fine, make sure the underlying financial alchemy hangs together, but after that well why
the need to react so much to a transitory theoretical deflationary situation which never even turned out to be deflationary? They may argue there is substantial risk to transitory deflation, and it could feed on itself and create a fair bit of damage. Fine, same can be said
of transitory inflation as well. In fact, more economic disasters in the world have been born out of inflationary disasters as opposed to deflationary disasters. The inflationary disasters tend to seem to start with poor governance, both fiscal and monetary, that we are seeing
now.
My guess is the answer to all of this is the Fed is no longer an independent entity and has become entangled in politics. Further, the Fed has its own version of cancel culture. Follow doctrine, you are acceptable as an economist, and you become part of the group.
Disagree, well you are just an old school curmudgeon stuck in the dark ages and you don't get a seat at the table. Mix that with the aforementioned lack of independence and politicization of the Fed, and you have a dangerous condition. money.yahoo.com/montana-plans-… @jimcramer

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More from @DougKass

26 Mar
Keys to a Life Well-Lived, From Rabbi Zion
As we approach the Jewish holiday I wanted to take this opportunity to reposte the original Rabbi Zion @realmoney article from five years ago:
"Yesterday I received a note from Dr. Martin Zion, Chuck's dad. Rabbi and his wife Jane have
been my proxy parents for years; as the anniversaries of their son's death at the World Trade center accumulated, my family has grown ever closer to this remarkably brave couple
I am sure (and I hope) that many of you have a Rabbi Zion in your life.
I tearfully read and digested
Rabbi Zion's words several times on Tuesday as I found them to be moving in message.
As I start my Diary this morning on the Jewish holiday of Yom Kippur, I wanted to share the thoughts from this most iconic figure in the Jewish community with all of you:
"It is a significant
Read 14 tweets
25 Mar
@realmoney
The Unfortunate Aftermath of Speculation
* Novice traders will likely now flee the markets
For months I have argued (with fellow contributors and with the Twitter community) that the wanton speculation in worthless gewgaws would have profoundly negative consequences
for the markets.
I argued that the rapidly rising supply (of SPACs et al) would overcome demand (which would be soon sated).
I opined that many (especially of a retail-kind) would lose alot of money (while only a few traders will retain their trading profits).
But, most importantly, as a consequence of the senseless/obscene speculative wave, we will once again (as we did in late 2007 and in early 2000) lose legions of new investors who thought trading was a "game" that involved simply buying stocks based solely that their charts
Read 6 tweets
24 Mar
Freebie (summary of @realmoney opener)
Mar 24, 2021 | 07:50 AM EDT DOUG KASS
You Done Tore Out My Heart and Stomped That Sucker Flat
"You keep on stompin'

And my heart is on the floor..."

- Lewis Gizzard, You Done Tore Out My Heart and Stomped That Sucker Flat
In yesterday's opening missive, "The Market Is a Hard Dog to Keep Under the Porch," I argued that the U.S. stock market remained materially overpriced and that investors and traders should consider using market rallies to reduce equity exposure and to raise cash:
* Value is stretched now (financial and energy) while growth valuations are vulnerable to higher interest rates.

* The current cash price of the S&P Index exceeds my calculus of "fair market value" by a wide 20%.

* The rapid increase in supply in SPACs poses a market threat.
Read 7 tweets
24 Mar
Freebie from @realmoney

Mar 23, 2021 | 08:12 AM EDT DOUG KASS
The Market Is a Hard Dog to Keep Under the Porch
* The U.S. stock market remains materially overpriced

* I would use market rallies to reduce equity exposure

* Value is stretched now (financials and energy)
while growth valuations are vulnerable to higher interest rates

* I am looking towards some SPACtacular failures in 2021-23

* Too many are forgetting the lessons of 2020 - that while the vaccine rollout is great news, many times we have seen that the economy is not the markets
* And the markets are not the economy

* In March, 2020 we bought the panic, as the S&P sold at more than a 20% discount to intrinsic value, and we ignored fear

* In March, 2021 we should consider selling the optimism, as the S&P is selling at more than a 20% premium to
Read 22 tweets
23 Mar
@realmoney

The Market Is A Hard Dog To Keep Under The Porch

* The U.S. stock market remains materially overpriced
* I would use market rallies to reduce equity exposure
* Value is stretched now (financials and energy) while growth valuations are
vulnerable to higher interest rates
* I am looking towards some SPACtacular failures in 2021-23
* Too many are forgetting the lessons of 2020 - that while the vaccine rollout is great news, many times we have seen that the economy is not the markets
* And the markets are not the
economy
* In March, 2020 we bought the panic (as the S&P sold at more than a 20% discount to intrinsic value) and we ignored fear
* In March, 2021 we should consider selling the optimism (as the S&P is selling at more than a 20% premium to intrinsic value) and we should
Read 5 tweets
19 Mar
@realmoney

Mar 18, 2021 | 05:00 PM EDT DOUG KASS
Assessing the Damage
My Takeaways
* The damage today was broad-based
* I ended the day with a medium-sized net short exposure (down from very large at the beginning of the day)
* Banks may have had a buying climax today
* Tech
(especially of a speculative-kind) remains overvalued

I recently wrote that my (negative) market view has rarely been at such odds with the generally bullish consensus.

This remains the case.

Based on my view of "fair market value" the S&P is still about 20% overvalued.
That does not mean, however, that an overvalued market needs to return to its value -- as markets tend to spend long periods as overvalued (but only short periods of undervaluation, like in December, 2018 and in March, 2020).

It does mean the there is very little "margin of
Read 11 tweets

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