Islamic State released photos today of the June 27 ISCAP-ADF attack on Manyala village in Ituri that IS first claimed yesterday - a quick thread on what open source tools, Islamic State propaganda and local reporting reveals about this attack
Local reports described an attack on Manzobe village on Sunday June 27 in the afternoon, with the first Tweet mentioning this specific attack being posted the next morning on June 28th at 4:27am EST/10:27am CAT
8.5 hours later at ~1:00pm EST/7:00 CAT, Islamic State issued a claim through its "Nashir" Telegram channels for an attack on Manyala village (written in Arabic as مانيالا), stating that IS Central Africa Province fighters attacked a FARDC barracks and killed 2 soldiers
Today at approximately 3:30 EST/9:30 CAT, IS media published 8 photos of the attack. Most notably, a young fighter (approximately 13-14 years old) was pictured holding an Islamic State flag in front of two cell phone towers, which were readily identifiable in Manyala village
In addition, photos of ISCAP fighters outside Pharmacie la Reussite, less than 60m from the cell phone towers, enable confirmation of the time of day of the attack. Using shadow length and direction, we can estimate the time that the photos were taken at around 4pm
Lastly, using satellite imagery from NASA's FIRMS site, which posts daily detections of fires by several satellites, it's possible to confirm reports of 17 houses being burned, with a fire detected on Sunday June 27 at 7:12pm EST/Monday June 28 at 1:12am CAT in Manzobe village
Putting all this together, there are some key takeaways:
-IS propaganda properly identified that Manyala village was attacked before local outlets distinguished Manyala from nearby Manzobe village, which was also attacked during the same raid
-IS posted its initial claim 26 hours after attack began & 8.5 hours after first local reports appeared on Twitter
-Satellite imagery confirms locations claimed in IS propaganda, as well as local reports of arson
-IS-released photos confirmed that 2 FARDC soldiers were killed
This sequence of releases pretty clearly demonstrates how ISCAP-ADF is rapidly relaying battlefield updates with specific geographic information to IS's propaganda apparatus, alongside media confirming both location and details. IS Central isn't just reading news reports.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
ISCAP-ADF carried out a prison break operation at Kangbayi Central Prison on the outskirts of Beni city, freeing ~1300 detainees; Islamic State media outlets quickly claimed the operation radiookapi.net/2020/10/20/act…
It's notable that a sizable military base is directly across the road - which the IS claim also said was attacked - and judging by the number of buildings, likely had ~100 soldiers; operation was well-planned, and says much about the FARDC's inability to prevent major incursions
Topographical perspective: ISCAP-ADF fighters reportedly engaged in an hour long gunbattle with FARDC troops at bases both on top of Lao hill and at the foot of the hill before breaking the doors of the prison; comes two days after IS urged prison breaks
So in light of "Al-Shabaab's" (ISCAP-Mozambique) attack on Kitaya - just across the the Rovuma river in southern Tanzania - here's a quick thread on jihadist militancy in Tanzania, its ties to the Islamic State, and its role in Mozambique's growing insurgency
Salafism has had a longstanding presence in Tanzania, really gaining prominence in the 1980s as students returned from studying in Saudi Arabia and elsewhere on scholarships from BAKWATA, the government-affiliated Muslim council.
Rejecting BAKWATA's corruption and perceived ineffectiveness - or simply not getting the jobs they expected - many turned to Ansar al-Sunnah, a loosely inter-connected network of private charities and pressure groups that sought to "purify" Tanzanian Islam
Rapid collapse of rebel lines from Qalaat al-Madiq to Kafr Naboudah is pretty surprising, as is silence from Turkey, whose troops have been directly attacked by regime forces on multiple occasions. Regime forces are within 1.5km of the Turkish observation point on Jabal Shashabo.
Area was primarily held by Ahrar al-Sham and small FSA groups, but HTS defeated them in January and imposed a supervisory role for itself. HTS appears to now simply be abandoning it, with those other "green" rebels in tow.
Turkey's investment into Idlib's power grid might be an indication of which areas they aim to hold: @casgec of HTS's Salvation Government received a $1mil contract in February to repair Idlib's grid and connect it to Turkey; map shows which lines have been repaired since then.