To secure decent living standards for all while reducing global energy use to avert #climatebreakdown, governments need to:
↗️public services
↗️income equality
↘️extractive industries
❌economic growth in affluent countries
📢NEW PAPER📢
Vulnerability of livelihoods to GDP decline is a big problem, given secular stagnation, escalating crises & the need to reduce production/consumption to avert climate breakdown.
We show what creates this vulnerability & how to overcome it.
🧵 t.ly/rDZ2Q
1/ The vulnerability of livelihoods to GDP decline creates a dilemma.
Economic growth exacerbates climate breakdown [Vogel & Hickel, 2023]. But the ecologically necessary reductions in production/consumption may reduce GDP, which in the current system could undermine livelihoods.
2/ This vulnerability is a problem also in the face of secular stagnation & economic disruptions from increasing crises (ecological, financial, resource, public health, geopolitical).
To tackle ecological crises & secure human wellbeing, this vulnerability must be overcome.
1/ Economic growth is understood to be the main driver of CO2 emissions, as IPCC states. Producing 11 units of something generates more emissions than producing 10 units of the same thing.
2/ So an increase in aggregate production & consumption (think: from 10 to 11 units) results in more emissions than would be generated without this increase, in any given scenario of technological change (until all energy is zero-carbon).
8 hours and 1000 flawed arguments and biased procedures later, Leeds City Plans Panel voted 9-5 for airport expansion and the false promises of economic growth.
For “what Leeds needs is a premier-league football club and a premier-league airport”
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1/ There was a lot of "I do care about climate change, BUT" – followed by a lot of blah blah. Blah blah economic growth. Blah blah connectivity. Blah blah competitiveness. Blah blah Manchester. Blah blah Westminster. Blah blah offsetting. Blah blah electric planes. Blah blah blah
2/ Also a lot of "I do have sympathy for residents suffering from planes flying over their roofs at night, BUT” - followed by more blah blah.
One councillor kindly offered his advice: “the way to less noise is more planes”. Right, Sherlock. Want to try that in your backyard?🤦♂️
Despite COVID, emissions are still way too high.
To limit global warming to 1.5 C, we need to *rapidly*
(i) decarbonise energy use AND
(ii) reduce energy use AND
(iii) decarbonise land use AND
(iv) reduce land use
Yes, ALL of these things SIMULTANEOUSLY.
How are we doing?
THREAD
1/ To limit warming to 1.5 C, global energy use must be completely decarbonised.
But the opposite is happening! Emissions per unit of energy use (‘carbon intensity of energy’) have been INCREASING since 2000 (largely due to increases in the share of coal, primarily in China).
2/ Rapid decarbonisation of energy use requires both a rapid roll-out of renewables AND a rapid phase-out of fossils. Not either-or: both-and.
✈️Can Leeds meet its climate targets if Leeds City Council allows expansion of Leeds Bradford Airport (LBA)?
No.
Is LBA’s own climate impact assessment accurate?
No.
Here’s the latest evidence. I urge Leeds City Plans Panel to
read this and act on it conscientiously.
THREAD
2/ Leeds City Council has adopted a CO2 target for Leeds based on a CO2 budget in line with 66% chance of staying below 1.5 C (black dotted curve) and committed to work towards net-zero CO2 by 2030, roughly met by @LeedsClimateCom's net-zero 2033 trajectory (grey dotted curve).
3/ Both trajectories exclude LBA emissions (~18% of Leeds emissions). I adjusted them to account for LBA emissions. Dark green dotted curve = budget-based CO2 target for Leeds incl. LBA; light green dotted curve = net-zero 2033 trajectory scaled by current share of LBA emissions.
@Matthuber78 states that any environmental politics must secure people’s basic needs, strengthen the working class and tackle inequalities. Great, couldn't agree more!
But then why does Matt completely overlook the LONG list of Degrowth policies that do precisely that?
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A few examples of such Degrowth policies:
-Decommodify basic needs
-Universal Basic Services
-Universal Basic Income
-Cancel illegitimate debts
-job guarantee
-living wage
-reduce working time
-re-allocate productivity gains into work time reduction and job creation
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