Even if the system is gamed in a few cases (Videcon, Siva etc), I think the IBC process is a very good thing for India to develop. Quoting low "recovery" rates is not the correct way to look at it, IMHO. (Thread)
Often quoted are recovery rates like 20%, 10% or even 3%. We must note that banks often pile up penal charges, interest after the account was NPA, and other fees as part of their "ask" - and this can be more than 50% or 60% of the amount they want!
The banks are also gaming this by demanding as high as they can. Penal interest and interest after account turns NPA are not to be accounted, but banks can demand them in a resolution process. This inflates the amount demanded, but banks don't expect this to be paid.
And then, assets go into bankruptcy when they are worth very little, or if the value realizable is far into the future (no one knew such a good steel cycle was ahead, otherwise the steel cos apart from Bhushan and Essar would have had higher bids)
A low bid asset is usually because it cannot be sold. Mostly, it's already a "loss" asset in bank books, inviting a 100% provision (meaning banks have written it down to 0 effectively)

At this point, if the bank could have recovered anything, it should have.
The bankruptcy process protects the company, not the banks. The company then can write off the debts and resume under a lower debt regime, and perhaps continue. If this means a bid that's very very low, then so be it, anything that doesn't force the company into liquidation.
Think of an i3 machine with 2G ram. It had a lot of value maybe 8 years back. If you didn't sell then, today it has little value - someone has to upgrade HDD, Ram and the os just to make it workable. A bid for 5K isn't a "oh he's underbidding". It's the best you can get.
What's the alternative? Strip it and sell it for parts. The hard disk is X, the RAM is Y etc. This will be worth less. But then you refused to accept even 5K, so there.

A bankruptcy act protects the company, not its creditors. The act allows it to live again.
I will do a separate thread on the IL&FS recovery, which doesn't belong in this argument. This is primarily to do with why I think IBC is the correct way. Lemme add a few things: Why do we have bankruptcy protection?
Imagine you took a home loan from a builder that absconded after taking 75 lakh on land that wasn't his to sell. Now, the bank can't sell the collateral so they can come after your life forever. Every rupee you make, they can claim.

This is a "with recourse" loan.
For you this means there's no point working - the bank can take every rupee you make. Forever till they get their 75 lakh back.

A bankruptcy act protects you. You file, the courts says "Ok what assets do you have" - say 25 lakh. You pay it (or promise to) and then no more loan.
Bankruptcy allows you to live from then on with the bank having no recourse beyond the 25 lakh. Your future income is now not claimable by the bank, as the settlement has come through bankruptcy court.
Yes, banks can settle outside court but what if it's five banks? Each one has a little claim? And what about claims of bribe?

A court mandated process keeps the resolution process clean - everyone gets a chance to be heard.
Why we need an IBC is to check if the company can survive - either a buyer revives it (not the current promoter), or they just sell it piece by piece.

And we need an IBC so that the buyer doesn't get haunted by bankers saying oh wait, the last fellow owed us something more.

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More from @deepakshenoy

28 Jun
New projects: guarantee cover for loans for new projects, interest rate capped at 7.95% for health sector and 8.25% for other sectors.
This is good because it is not cash outflow from govt. You put a project, you have to default first only then will govt pay. But at 7.5% you should find it easy to not default.
MFI based new lending to be supported. This can be complicated. All defaulters with less than 90 days can apply => no NPA people will be covered.
Read 12 tweets
25 Jun
I feel like the song "Cats in the cradle" again. The layman investor in 2000. The guy who knew (in 2007) that things would hit the fan, but not exactly how.

And the guy who's worried about the market now in 2021 - and the only lesson he's learnt is "Participate."
In 2007, October 29, I was like - what are these people afraid of? Make merry while the sun shines. Too focussed on "value" I said: capitalmind.in/2007/10/so-its…
And then, in just a few days more, I'd decided it was going to be over. November 10, 2007, wishing everyone Happy Diwali: capitalmind.in/2007/page/3/
Read 6 tweets
15 Jun
Understanding India's bankruptcy laws needs more nuance. A company like Patanjali that takes loans on its own balance sheet to buy a Ruchi Soya, doesn't mean the banks are lending to Ruchi Soya.
Patanjali also has to pledge the Ruchi Soya shares it purchases, as part of that deal. Apart from those shares, there are corporate guarantees. If it doesn't service the loan, banks can sell the shares, if that's not enough, they should invoke the guarantee.
In general, any bankruptcy purchaser will want to fund the purchase partly by equity, partly by debt, and it's quite likely the same banks provide the debt; to them, it's actually a different borrower.
Read 4 tweets
15 Jun
Don't buy Videocon. The resolution plan is out. You will get ZERO rupees.
The NCLT order, now public, says this: First step, delist. Some mergers etc. later, fifth step: WRITE OFF ALL CAPITAL TO ZERO. NIL. (Images attached)

Again: YOU WILL LOSE ALL YOUR MONEY IN VIDEOCON SHARES.
Yesterday people were complaining how a rumour brought down Adani group shares.

Today when you have real news from a court that Videocon shares are going to zero, it's on Upper Circuit.

You gotta love markets.
Read 5 tweets
9 Jun
We decode the massive 512.5 cr. fine on Franklin Templeton, by SEBI in an order, on the debt funds that were shuttered unilaterally by the AMC in April 2020.

capitalmind.in/2021/06/decodi…
A few follow ups: We had posted in December on a thread about what action we hoped SEBI would take, and I'm glad to say that SEBI has been incredibly open and listened.
Our original post when the funds where shut: capitalmind.in/2020/04/the-fr…
Read 4 tweets
7 Jun
Be careful if you hear tips asking you to buy DHFL. The nclt has approved the resolution plan, where I believe the plan is for the shares to be written off to zero. Piramal will then get new shares. Today's shares will have zero value, beware.
Meanwhile, today, 21 lakh shares traded at upper circuit. This will do good as a coin - DHFLCOIN - and go to the moon. Image
Read 7 tweets

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