1/
The proof (long-suspected) that the mRNA (like AZ DNA) vaxes do not offer sterilizing immunity is now being used to push wider vaccination among kids to acquire “herd immunity.” This makes no sense—it should be the opposite.
wsj.com/articles/vacci…
The proof (long-suspected) that the mRNA (like AZ DNA) vaxes do not offer sterilizing immunity is now being used to push wider vaccination among kids to acquire “herd immunity.” This makes no sense—it should be the opposite.
wsj.com/articles/vacci…
2/
AZ is the only manufacturer that did weekly testing of trial participants to evaluate the efficacy of vaccines in stopping infection—not just disease. These results showed that the AZ standard dose had no impact on reducing asymptomatic infection.
thelancet.com/action/showPdf…
AZ is the only manufacturer that did weekly testing of trial participants to evaluate the efficacy of vaccines in stopping infection—not just disease. These results showed that the AZ standard dose had no impact on reducing asymptomatic infection.
thelancet.com/action/showPdf…
3/
Neither Pfizer’s nor Moderna’s trials did this. Pfizer’s recorded 170 infections (162 control v. 8 vax) However, data in the FDA’s review showed an additional 3410 suspected cases—1816 control/1594 vax. This would reduce efficacy from 95% to 19%.
blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/01/04…
Neither Pfizer’s nor Moderna’s trials did this. Pfizer’s recorded 170 infections (162 control v. 8 vax) However, data in the FDA’s review showed an additional 3410 suspected cases—1816 control/1594 vax. This would reduce efficacy from 95% to 19%.
blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/01/04…
4/
These results are perfectly inline early results suggesting that none of the mRNA / DNA vax candidates produced sterilizing immunity. nature.com/articles/s4158…
These results are perfectly inline early results suggesting that none of the mRNA / DNA vax candidates produced sterilizing immunity. nature.com/articles/s4158…
5/
This data is inline with other data, too. The early study of Israel HCWs purports to show that vaxes decrease not just disease, but infection. But testing was not routine. Testing was only done on symptomatic HCWs, and those identified as contacts. thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/…
This data is inline with other data, too. The early study of Israel HCWs purports to show that vaxes decrease not just disease, but infection. But testing was not routine. Testing was only done on symptomatic HCWs, and those identified as contacts. thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/…
6/
This necessarily biases the study. There is no doubt that the vaccines decrease symptomatic disease. The question is, whether they reduce asymptomatic disease. By relying on testing based on symptoms or exposure, it necessarily looks at symptomatic disease.
This necessarily biases the study. There is no doubt that the vaccines decrease symptomatic disease. The question is, whether they reduce asymptomatic disease. By relying on testing based on symptoms or exposure, it necessarily looks at symptomatic disease.
7/
None of this—nor this most recent revelation from Israel—means the vaccines are not powerful tools. They are still very effective at preventing disease. But it does call into serious question whether wider uptake will lead to vaccine-generated “herd immunity.”
None of this—nor this most recent revelation from Israel—means the vaccines are not powerful tools. They are still very effective at preventing disease. But it does call into serious question whether wider uptake will lead to vaccine-generated “herd immunity.”
8/
Interestingly, there was a whole raft of articles like this in January explaining why no sterilizing immunity was not a big deal. theconversation.com/coronavirus-fe…
Interestingly, there was a whole raft of articles like this in January explaining why no sterilizing immunity was not a big deal. theconversation.com/coronavirus-fe…
9/
Initial distribution plans clearly took this into account. It is no doubt the reason why we initially contracted for 100M courses—there are ~ 100 M people at elevated risk for severe disease in the US (based on age & co-morbidities).
Initial distribution plans clearly took this into account. It is no doubt the reason why we initially contracted for 100M courses—there are ~ 100 M people at elevated risk for severe disease in the US (based on age & co-morbidities).
10/
COVID is EXTREMELY discriminating in whom it lays low—and the results, are, as we know, deadly. In NYC, at the end of their only true wave, of more than 13k dead, only 81 people without co-morbidities had died in ANY age group.
COVID is EXTREMELY discriminating in whom it lays low—and the results, are, as we know, deadly. In NYC, at the end of their only true wave, of more than 13k dead, only 81 people without co-morbidities had died in ANY age group.
11/
Antibody testing from the time estimated that >1.6 million NYC residents had contracted COVID—approximately 60%, or 1,000,000 of whom would NOT have had co-morbidities, yielding a healthy-person IFR of 0.008%.
(see calculations, here: thepragmatist.co/post/nearly-60…)
Antibody testing from the time estimated that >1.6 million NYC residents had contracted COVID—approximately 60%, or 1,000,000 of whom would NOT have had co-morbidities, yielding a healthy-person IFR of 0.008%.
(see calculations, here: thepragmatist.co/post/nearly-60…)
12/
The lethal nature of the disease for very specific groups, high effectiveness in reducing disease severity, a limited worldwide supply, brand new tech available under Emergency Use, & seemingly non-existent sterilizing immunity ought to have made targeted dist a no-brainer.
The lethal nature of the disease for very specific groups, high effectiveness in reducing disease severity, a limited worldwide supply, brand new tech available under Emergency Use, & seemingly non-existent sterilizing immunity ought to have made targeted dist a no-brainer.
13/
And yet governments around the world, from the UK—where it is 100% certain that the vax in use does NOT provide sterilizing immunity—the EU, the US, etc., have crafted policies that are predicated upon the vaxes providing sterilizing immunity.
And yet governments around the world, from the UK—where it is 100% certain that the vax in use does NOT provide sterilizing immunity—the EU, the US, etc., have crafted policies that are predicated upon the vaxes providing sterilizing immunity.
14/
Indeed, this is the rationale for vaxing kids, even though they are not at risk, and are at higher risk of serious side effects. I believe this is an immoral argument in any case. In the absence of sterilizing immunity, it doesn’t even have mechanistic plausibility.
Indeed, this is the rationale for vaxing kids, even though they are not at risk, and are at higher risk of serious side effects. I believe this is an immoral argument in any case. In the absence of sterilizing immunity, it doesn’t even have mechanistic plausibility.
15/
Some will argue that vaxes, by reducing symptoms will reduce transmission. When it comes to children, only 20% of children are symptomatic in any case, meaning that their natural disease course is far less likely to result in transmission.
jamanetwork.com/journals/jaman…
Some will argue that vaxes, by reducing symptoms will reduce transmission. When it comes to children, only 20% of children are symptomatic in any case, meaning that their natural disease course is far less likely to result in transmission.
jamanetwork.com/journals/jaman…
16/
There is another potential confounder. W/flu vaxes (also non-sterilizing), vaxed individuals generate 6x more fine aerosols—and increasingly it looks like not only are these more numerous, they are also the only ones that carry infectious virus. pnas.org/content/pnas/1…
There is another potential confounder. W/flu vaxes (also non-sterilizing), vaxed individuals generate 6x more fine aerosols—and increasingly it looks like not only are these more numerous, they are also the only ones that carry infectious virus. pnas.org/content/pnas/1…
17/
If this were also true for SARS-CoV-2-vaccinated people, this could result in an increase in infectiousness of vaccinated people, relative to un-vaccinated. Comparing the UK/France, and Israel/Lebanon, makes this seem a possibility.
If this were also true for SARS-CoV-2-vaccinated people, this could result in an increase in infectiousness of vaccinated people, relative to un-vaccinated. Comparing the UK/France, and Israel/Lebanon, makes this seem a possibility.
18/
Interestingly, looking back at that Israeli study, during that rapid vaccination campaign, non-vaccinated HCWs (obv in the presence of vaxed), were 45% more likely than the rest of the population to get infected. This could, be due to being in a higher infection-risk env.
Interestingly, looking back at that Israeli study, during that rapid vaccination campaign, non-vaccinated HCWs (obv in the presence of vaxed), were 45% more likely than the rest of the population to get infected. This could, be due to being in a higher infection-risk env.
18/
This is NOT an argument for more masking. If masking were the answer here, it would literally mean masking forever. And, remember, the aerosols that are generated in higher amounts are those less than 5 microns—those that easily escape masks
This is NOT an argument for more masking. If masking were the answer here, it would literally mean masking forever. And, remember, the aerosols that are generated in higher amounts are those less than 5 microns—those that easily escape masks
https://twitter.com/Emily_Burns_V/status/1398022430476713987
19/
It IS an argument for transparency about who is REALLY at risk, & targeting vaxes to those groups. We have a very good match here: clear at-risk group, vaxes w/high efficacy at curbing severe disease. The narrowness of the threat, is underscored here
It IS an argument for transparency about who is REALLY at risk, & targeting vaxes to those groups. We have a very good match here: clear at-risk group, vaxes w/high efficacy at curbing severe disease. The narrowness of the threat, is underscored here
https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1410255061918355467
20/
The Delta variant is being used as further justification to push vaccines among low-risk populations, but this variant, while it may spread faster, appears also to be less lethal—a major evolutionary advantage for a virus—and a plus for all of us.
The Delta variant is being used as further justification to push vaccines among low-risk populations, but this variant, while it may spread faster, appears also to be less lethal—a major evolutionary advantage for a virus—and a plus for all of us.
https://twitter.com/justin_hart/status/1409873841061515265
21/
W/mounting evidence that the vaccines are more dangerous for those at lowest-risk, and least likely to transmit, and that they do not offer sterilizing immunity—the only rationale for widespread vaccination—why do governments keep pushing it?
W/mounting evidence that the vaccines are more dangerous for those at lowest-risk, and least likely to transmit, and that they do not offer sterilizing immunity—the only rationale for widespread vaccination—why do governments keep pushing it?
https://twitter.com/VPrasadMDMPH/status/1409956621241905152
22/
I suspect there are 2 reasons. 1st govts DESPERATELY don’t want to acknowledge how unnecessary/counter-productive the last year’s pain has been. Widespread vaccination allows them to take credit for “stopping it”, rather than acknowledging failures
I suspect there are 2 reasons. 1st govts DESPERATELY don’t want to acknowledge how unnecessary/counter-productive the last year’s pain has been. Widespread vaccination allows them to take credit for “stopping it”, rather than acknowledging failures
https://twitter.com/galexybrane/status/1409573413874638858
23/
The other is the pharma lobby. In the US, it is clear that CDC decision-making is heavily swayed by this and other powerful lobbies. Satisfying this powerful interest group at the same time they paper over their colossal failures is surely a win-win.
The other is the pharma lobby. In the US, it is clear that CDC decision-making is heavily swayed by this and other powerful lobbies. Satisfying this powerful interest group at the same time they paper over their colossal failures is surely a win-win.
https://twitter.com/Emily_Burns_V/status/1398035286752382977
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