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David Henig

30 Jun, 7 tweets, 2 min read

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1410275383375769608

What just happened on the Northern Ireland protocol is what keeps happening and will keep happening because it is the least bad mutual outcome. The UK did not get anywhere with a renegotiation on fundamentals and the EU had to flex on some specific issues.

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1410275383375769608

The UK government believes that even without alignment there should be no checks on goods movements between UK and EU via Northern Ireland, but the EU and US disagree and will continue to do so. Two years of repeated attempts by the Johnson government have got nowhere.

There's no real pressure on the UK to move away from a failed position as the media and influential Brexit supporters are quite happy to blame the May administration and / or the EU for Johnson's failure. Handy really.

Meanwhile the EU (but mainly France) don't really want to have to give all these small concessions to the UK over the Northern Ireland protocol, but to keep the negotiating high ground including US support they have to do so, given the UK won't align.

For how long will the EU and UK be stuck over the Northern Ireland protocol? Given two years and counting since Johnson became PM, what is going to change? Particularly as the EU has zero respect for the UK leads, and believe that to be reciprocal.

@hayward_katy

IIRC it was @hayward_katy who made the analogy of Northern Ireland in Brexit as the child of divorcing parents. Well the divorce happened but the parents simply moved to separate rooms of the same house, leaving the kids room shared.

July is simply too sensitive a time for both sides, and August will be holiday time, so we'll go round the same loop again from September. Hard to see right now what can move us on from that./ end

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More from @DavidHenigUK

David Henig

@DavidHenigUK

2 Jul

Oh look, UK government ministers once again inciting divisions in Northern Ireland in preference to admitting what they signed. In July, the most sensitive month for Northern Ireland politics. irishtimes.com/opinion/we-mus…

Which of the 300-plus EU regulations that the UK government committed by treaty to apply in Northern Ireland do ministers now wish in fact not to apply? And when precisely were these assumptions and expectations laid out?

Those operating in good faith do not constantly undermine and deny the agreement they signed. Or indeed regularly write articles saying someone else is to blame. Indeed this article will be viewed by those on the other side as emotional blackmail.

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David Henig

@DavidHenigUK

2 Jul

Proper football. Best two teams so far and it looks like it.

Italy brilliant in the first half hour, so far the better side

What a half of football. As good as it gets at international level.

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David Henig

@DavidHenigUK

1 Jul

@MESandbu

A useful summary from @MESandbu of the new globalisation, and in particular the move towards what I call 'conditional trade' - where imports of for example food may have to meet the same conditions as domestic production. ft.com/content/7b844d…

An article referenced, not paywalled, on the new globalisation. I think we are likely to see a more complex picture, with outright protectionism and subsidies in some areas, and free flows of trade in others. And supply chains weaving around restrictions. project-syndicate.org/commentary/fut…

In a sense the UK government's confusion over trade is actually a good representation of the globalisation debate in 2021. Talking free trade while increasing barriers, combining regulatory autonomy with the rules of trade partners, and introducing animal welfare and similar.

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David Henig

@DavidHenigUK

30 Jun

The Nissan story is just as important to Brexit as Northern Ireland. It has become the emblem of the red wall and Brexit. Which means it must survive. And given a need to export to the EU that means the UK government can't afford to provoke a trade conflict. (clip from Tortoise)

As with Northern Ireland, the government is going to talk tough with the EU, and make bold claims on divergence. There will be trade deals. But ultimately gravity and the pull of a large market next door will win.

For the time being the rough equilibrium is the UK government talking tough re. the EU and hoping their supporters don't notice the lack of significant divergence. But that still doesn't feel terribly sustainable in the long term.

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David Henig

@DavidHenigUK

28 Jun

Just for a change, a good news story about a UK negotiating success in Europe. The European voluntary standards organisations CEN and CENELEC have agreed that BSI can continue to be a full member and will change their statutes accordingly.
linkedin.com/posts/bsi-nati…

It was not at all a given that BSI could remain part of the European standards framework given existing rules and doubts about UK policy intentions. Indeed I was told here by a few usual Brexit suspects that there was no way the EU would agree (though these aren't EU bodies).

So how did the BSI achieve what the UK government apparently couldn't and get what they wanted in Europe? A clear objective agreed internally, extensive engagement, trust-building, and persistence. Starting in the days after the referendum.

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