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David Henig

30 Jun, 9 tweets, 3 min read

The Nissan story is just as important to Brexit as Northern Ireland. It has become the emblem of the red wall and Brexit. Which means it must survive. And given a need to export to the EU that means the UK government can't afford to provoke a trade conflict. (clip from Tortoise)

As with Northern Ireland, the government is going to talk tough with the EU, and make bold claims on divergence. There will be trade deals. But ultimately gravity and the pull of a large market next door will win.

For the time being the rough equilibrium is the UK government talking tough re. the EU and hoping their supporters don't notice the lack of significant divergence. But that still doesn't feel terribly sustainable in the long term.

Good news. At a certain cost to the public purse. Shows Nissan committee to the UK and vice versa. Predicated though on maintaining a functioning relationship with the EU. Nissan isn't planning on selling too many cars to CPTPP countries from the UK. bbc.co.uk/news/business-…

Nissan is why there was a UK-EU deal in December, even though it crossed apparent UK red lines on fishing and level playing field. A reasonable priority to be fair, but one with implications which deserve further analysis.

https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1277987963314601986

A million years ago... but still relevant today. Which bit of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement do you think the EU would target if the UK breaches terms? Electric vehicle tariffs perhaps...?

https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1277987963314601986

@StevePeers

Incidentally I *think* that UK government subsidy to Nissan has to be made public under the terms of the TCA, and the EU could object (but given the amount they're spending on subsidising car makers perhaps not) - @StevePeers?

https://twitter.com/Petercampbell1/status/1410497640836521989

Welcome to a new golden age of government subsidies (in the UK, EU, US etc...) - this new age will co-exist with complaints from the same countries about Chinese subsidies. No, this isn't good for global trade rules at least on subsidies...

https://twitter.com/Petercampbell1/status/1410497640836521989

The excitement of the Brexit ultras over Nissan is something to behold. One factory proving them right, fair in response to those very few who thought Brexit = scorched UK, funny for most of us who see Nissan directing UK government policy to be softer towards the EU.

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More from @DavidHenigUK

David Henig

@DavidHenigUK

2 Jul

Oh look, UK government ministers once again inciting divisions in Northern Ireland in preference to admitting what they signed. In July, the most sensitive month for Northern Ireland politics. irishtimes.com/opinion/we-mus…

Which of the 300-plus EU regulations that the UK government committed by treaty to apply in Northern Ireland do ministers now wish in fact not to apply? And when precisely were these assumptions and expectations laid out?

Those operating in good faith do not constantly undermine and deny the agreement they signed. Or indeed regularly write articles saying someone else is to blame. Indeed this article will be viewed by those on the other side as emotional blackmail.

Read 8 tweets

David Henig

@DavidHenigUK

2 Jul

Proper football. Best two teams so far and it looks like it.

Italy brilliant in the first half hour, so far the better side

What a half of football. As good as it gets at international level.

Read 5 tweets

David Henig

@DavidHenigUK

1 Jul

@MESandbu

A useful summary from @MESandbu of the new globalisation, and in particular the move towards what I call 'conditional trade' - where imports of for example food may have to meet the same conditions as domestic production. ft.com/content/7b844d…

An article referenced, not paywalled, on the new globalisation. I think we are likely to see a more complex picture, with outright protectionism and subsidies in some areas, and free flows of trade in others. And supply chains weaving around restrictions. project-syndicate.org/commentary/fut…

In a sense the UK government's confusion over trade is actually a good representation of the globalisation debate in 2021. Talking free trade while increasing barriers, combining regulatory autonomy with the rules of trade partners, and introducing animal welfare and similar.

Read 4 tweets

David Henig

@DavidHenigUK

30 Jun

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1410275383375769608

What just happened on the Northern Ireland protocol is what keeps happening and will keep happening because it is the least bad mutual outcome. The UK did not get anywhere with a renegotiation on fundamentals and the EU had to flex on some specific issues.

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1410275383375769608

The UK government believes that even without alignment there should be no checks on goods movements between UK and EU via Northern Ireland, but the EU and US disagree and will continue to do so. Two years of repeated attempts by the Johnson government have got nowhere.

There's no real pressure on the UK to move away from a failed position as the media and influential Brexit supporters are quite happy to blame the May administration and / or the EU for Johnson's failure. Handy really.

Read 7 tweets

David Henig

@DavidHenigUK

28 Jun

Just for a change, a good news story about a UK negotiating success in Europe. The European voluntary standards organisations CEN and CENELEC have agreed that BSI can continue to be a full member and will change their statutes accordingly.
linkedin.com/posts/bsi-nati…

It was not at all a given that BSI could remain part of the European standards framework given existing rules and doubts about UK policy intentions. Indeed I was told here by a few usual Brexit suspects that there was no way the EU would agree (though these aren't EU bodies).

So how did the BSI achieve what the UK government apparently couldn't and get what they wanted in Europe? A clear objective agreed internally, extensive engagement, trust-building, and persistence. Starting in the days after the referendum.

Read 4 tweets