Thread by @DavidHenigUK

The Nissan story is just as important to Brexit as Northern Ireland. It has become the emblem of the red wall and Brexit. Which means it must survive. And given a need to export to the EU that means the UK government can't afford to provoke a trade conflict. (clip from Tortoise)

As with Northern Ireland, the government is going to talk tough with the EU, and make bold claims on divergence. There will be trade deals. But ultimately gravity and the pull of a large market next door will win.

For the time being the rough equilibrium is the UK government talking tough re. the EU and hoping their supporters don't notice the lack of significant divergence. But that still doesn't feel terribly sustainable in the long term.

Good news. At a certain cost to the public purse. Shows Nissan committee to the UK and vice versa. Predicated though on maintaining a functioning relationship with the EU. Nissan isn't planning on selling too many cars to CPTPP countries from the UK. bbc.co.uk/news/business-…

Nissan is why there was a UK-EU deal in December, even though it crossed apparent UK red lines on fishing and level playing field. A reasonable priority to be fair, but one with implications which deserve further analysis.

A million years ago... but still relevant today. Which bit of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement do you think the EU would target if the UK breaches terms? Electric vehicle tariffs perhaps...?

https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1277987963314601986

Incidentally I *think* that UK government subsidy to Nissan has to be made public under the terms of the TCA, and the EU could object (but given the amount they're spending on subsidising car makers perhaps not) - @StevePeers?

Welcome to a new golden age of government subsidies (in the UK, EU, US etc...) - this new age will co-exist with complaints from the same countries about Chinese subsidies. No, this isn't good for global trade rules at least on subsidies...

https://twitter.com/Petercampbell1/status/1410497640836521989

The excitement of the Brexit ultras over Nissan is something to behold. One factory proving them right, fair in response to those very few who thought Brexit = scorched UK, funny for most of us who see Nissan directing UK government policy to be softer towards the EU.