1\ Fascinating comments in the screenshots below

And especially provocative given how much of cooperation (or morality, if you want to call it that) requires thinking through iterative prisoners' dilemmas (see author's comments about "recursion")
2\ The exciting crimes we're used to in the US often come down to some subtle mistake

Oh, the micro fiber! Oh, he forgot to use a VPN!

But there's an entire understory of crime that is unimaginably stupid in the sense of being literally unimaginable to an average person

Eg...
3\ My father in law (not in the US) used to manage a furniture store whose floor staff were around 70 IQ

One of my favorite stories is about a cashier who was "stealing" using something similar to the Arrested Development banana stand scheme...
4\ When a customer paid cash, the cashier would pocket the cash, then use her *own* credit card to ring the sale

It wasn't some clever way of getting a cash advance, and she didn't plan to just not pay the account

She was genuinely mystified when caught!
5\ Related, but on the other end of the IQ spectrum, apparently Ted Bundy was surprised when caught to learn that numerous people had given eye witness accounts of him

To a man who viewed people as cattle, it seemed surprising that any of the cattle would have noticed him

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More from @ElonBachman

27 Jun
1\ The factor unifying all COVID hysteria has been an inability to think in terms of Bayes

All along we focused on the seen, ignoring the unseen
2\ We focused on CFR instead of IFR

We took videos of comatose pedestrians at face value, forgetting to adjust for base rates

We obsessed over the Diamond Princess instead of the many lightly infected ships
3\ We panicked over ground glass opacities and myocarditis, forgetting to ask how common those are after flu

We proclaimed no evidence for seasonality despite a 99% prior being appropriate
Read 9 tweets
24 Jun
I'd flip the script here: a government big enough to scoff at militias is too big
Wish I'd thought of this response!
Every time POTUS wants to start a war, he should have to get all the governors together in a drafty castle and grovel until one of them steps forward and starts a slow clap
Read 4 tweets
23 Jun
1\ With panic back in vogue, moral entrepreneurs are finding "epidemics" under every rock

Puerto Rico declared a state of emergency this year over a supposed outbreak of femicides

Press coverage of the issue is histrionic

Let's look at the data..

abcnews.go.com/US/puerto-rico…
2\ Using the expansive interpolations of a lobbying outfit, there were 60 femicides last year, up 62% over 2019

62% is a huge increase!
3\ Well it turns out that so few women are killed in Puerto Rico that what you're seeing is just the high variance of tiny samples

2019 is dead flat with, for instance, 2014

And 2016

And 2018:
Read 4 tweets
18 Jun
1\ BofA was started by Italian immigrants, who figured out that by *discriminating* between Northern and Southern Italians (whom US lenders couldn't tell apart), they could lend to the good Northern credits
2\ Thus, the one-time biggest bank in the world succeeded because they figured out how to make finer and finer distinctions between individuals, which had a "disparate impact" on Southern Italians

But the alternative was no loans for any Italian immigrants. It was a win!
3\ Thanks to the Civil Rights Acts, "disparate impacts" are now illegal. E.g. a company asking about criminal history will incur the ire of the EEOC, because of the disparate impact on blacks

So a rational company just pulls out of black areas, leaving deserving blacks worse off
Read 4 tweets
13 Jun
You can be jailed for standing up to Wokeness: Image
Government is always happy to take up the banner of a new religion. It has been on every single side of the Gender & Sports issue, except the principled side of "not our business": Image
Prole Nouns! Image
Read 5 tweets
10 Jun
1\ It's odd: the collective kabuki dance in which we all pretend to be fragile and afraid of giving or taking offense

Meanwhile, we thrill to the Hollywood trope of "comfortable American place": the black barbershop, the construction site, the police precinct locker room
2\ These tropes are lovable because they reveal our real values, we know their boundaries, the friction is out in the open and honest

They are earthy, jocose, ribald, a bit harsh, and we *like that*

Humans LOVE it when a spade gets called a spade
3\ Non-PC culture is the seedy but essentially harmless uncle who would drop everything to teach you how to change a flat tire

PC culture is the hyper verbal mother with borderline personality disorder; what confected rage might she fly into next?
Read 4 tweets

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