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Faisal Islam Profile picture
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1 Jul, 4 tweets, 1 min read
Significant new investment in sector v dependent on EU exports - timed to deal with rules of origin issue that was subject of very last negotiations between PM & VDL. Basically the batteries will need to be British for the car to be exported tariff free bbc.co.uk/news/business-…
Strongest commitment yet from Nissan that “generation after generation” of workers in Sunderland will be employed, after this investment…
The questions - how much is the subsidy… as this is around one tenth of battery capacity required to maintain the current size of car industry, will everyone else get same subsidy… and what might happen if in a spat with EU over something else, tariffs were applied…
Nissan say 6000 new jobs mainly in supply chain - which is good news, esp considering electric car/ battery production lines are far more automated than combustion engine ones. Across world, expectations of structurally lower number of jobs in car factories.

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More from @faisalislam

Faisal Islam Profile picture
1 Jul
NEW: Bank of England Governor Bailey at Mansion House says economy is “bouncing back rapidly” that inflation rise “will continue through the rest of this year.. further above target” but that this is expected to be a “temporary feature of the bounce back”...
Unexpectedly few references to the football in the Governor’s speech.... but he does cite the competing inflationary impact of the Beckham family ... a 29 year high in personal grooming inflation of 8%, though Victoria Beckham is cutting the avg price of her dresses by 40%
Chancellor at Mansion House: “I see no reason of substance why the UK should not continue to provide clearing services for countries in the EU” - says UK’s principles and values on regulation/ rule of law should reassure
Read 5 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
25 Jun
Coming up at the top of the hour on @BBCTwo …
From tonight’s early Newsnight… a Hancock half hour… of sorts…
Opposition calling for Health Sec to be fired by the PM - note we obviously asked the Government, backbench MPs and former aides to defend him - no one was available
Read 11 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
24 Jun
NEW:

UK natural population declined in 2020, after spike in pandemic deaths, and ongoing long term decline in birth rate.

Across all four nations provisional figures show:
689,698 deaths - well up on normal
684,639 births

Natural population fall of 5k ...
v v rare
V v rare. Only happened in one set of figures since WW2 says @jdportes in the late 1970s.
Had to work this out from 3 different data sources - stress figures are provisional - trend is driven by really notable & yet little commented on collapse in fertility, combined with the shocking death rise during pandemic...

Across UK in 2020 Scotland pushes UK fig negative
Read 8 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
22 Jun
form guide in the shooting warm up - Grealish 0/4 saka 3/4 Kane 1/4 Sterling 2/4 …. Just bring on Sancho and Rashford already!
Half time peek at the scottish game - good luck to the tartan army…. Mctominay to score the winner…
Trying to work out which economic chart I could overlay on to this…
Read 4 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
22 Jun
NEW:

Official Government figures released this morning show Foreign Direct Investment into the UK in the year to March, at its lowest level (in terms of annual projects and jobs created) in a decade, at 1,538 projects, down 17% in past year, and down 32% since 2016-17 peak.
The context here was that in the calendar year 2020, for example, UNCTAD reported a 42% fall in global FDI by value - ie a clear pandemic effect - though on this measure (there are many different measures) UK went down to zero, alongside Italy unctad.org/system/files/o…
Past year’s figures show across the board hit to new investments (-23%), expansions (-5%) and M&A (-11%)

But there is also a clear trend since 2016 on the first two on these official numbers...
Read 8 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
22 Jun
Govt releases macroeconomic study of joining Trans Pacific Trade deal... based on existing members, it is a relatively modest £1.8bn in 15 year’s time, or 0.09% of GDP...

DIT points to possibility of other nations, say Thailand and the S Korea joining boosting it to 5.5bn/ 0.3%
If US joins TPP, and the US and UK dont do a deal, then the Govt anticipates a £19.7bn boost in total to trade, though that is a forecast of one hypothetical on another one..

gains that are calculated by Govt are modest, arise out of the eradication of many “non tariff measures”
Two interesting things on above - overwhelming gains of TPP are on trade with Malaysia and Brunei - they are going to take keenest interest here...

Malaysian free trade negotiations with EU stalled nearly a decade ago amid dispute esp re palm oil.

look like restarting now tho.
Read 5 tweets

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