If the UK Left focuses entirely on risk elimination, it leaves the field in the debate over risk management to the Right in ways that enable the cutting back or even shutting down over costs of essential civil defence structures that have been set up in the last 18 months
Once the Right of the Tory Party in particular has banked "freedom day", the next likely move is to push for shutting down "costly" civil defence structures that if maintained perhaps in a new civil defence agency could prove essential to heading off future crises
One of the long forgotten aspects of the beginnings of the UK response to the COVID19 crisis is the UK government's decision to use a new legislative framework rather than the Civil Contingencies Act. Something I always thought still needs a lot more scrutiny than it ever got
The UK needs to see how it can develop civil defence structures it now has, experience in national and local governments that has emerged, and how any new agency remains integrated with police, the NHS and the military. If it's all cut instead the institutional memory will wither
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Once businesses give up on enforcing a measure even if it is in place there is no state power that can ensure it is followed in every venue. You can't post cops at every Tesco. So it is worth asking whether businesses still have the will to enforce compliance in everyday life
The UK debate around public health measures is constructed around binaries of personal responsibility vs state power. It never properly engaged with state capacity for enforcement, how public and business consent is generated and the conditions in which consent might fall apart
You may oppose a measure because it constrains freedoms. But if it gets public consent the state can use finite resources to enforce it
You may want a measure because it makes you feel safe. But if public consent withers the state's finite resources will struggle to enforce it
UK would be competing with extensive French, US and even Italian outreach efforts that reach down to Bundesland regional politics. Successful outreach can't just focus on Berlin, it needs to put resources in links with Land leaderships who often call the shots and rise to the top
I've seen several attempts first hand at UK high level outreach towards Germany to influence EU and German policy. They all focused too much on Berlin, neglected Bundesland networks in the regions, were underresourced and did not reflect long term focus
That seemingly obscure Bundesland power broker in Düsseldorf, Hannover, Berlin, Munich or Dresden who could be charmed through UK outreach now could become a major national player in a few year's time.
Now that UK government messaging faces a shift towards risk management rather than risk elimination, it needs leaders with the credibility to generate public confidence that this shift will not generate a new and different crisis that flows out of the current crisis
COVID19 as a crisis has gone from an unknown unknown to a known unknown to a known known. The risk parameters and options generated by the current crisis are now a familiar political debate.
In my experience, that's when risks are highest of the next unknown unknown taking shape
The Eurozone crisis squeezed other political issues as the dominant theme of European political debate between 2008 and 2013, even as risks built up in the Syrian War and between Ukrainian and Russian society in ways that generated new migration and military shocks in 2014/15
UK governments unable to grasp how competitive global markets for skills work where you can't magic up structures to retain skilled professionals and workers overnight is an old theme in the UK. It didn't suddenly appear with Johnson and Harding and will be there after they go
Harding will start her time as head of the NHS making announcements about recruiting enough UK citizens, and when the NHS still struggles to recruit and retain she'll end her time there struggling to get enough migrant work permits for the NHS as she can out of the Home Office
Harding is making these announcements about future recruitment for the NHS at a time at which the pressures of COVID19 risk leading to a surge in burnout and loss of existing NHS staff while medical professionals are in high demand in every European healthcare system
Where RIA uses anywheres vs somewheres arguments to explain how ordinary hardworking Russians apparently appreciated the heating and free meals of Gulag camps in ways that soft cosmopolitan intellectuals could never understand
"For elites the Gulag may have been an uncomfortable contrast to Hotel Astoria and Metropol, but for 100 000s of normal people, as paradox as it sounds, it was a source of upward mobility"
We've hit peak populism.
The Gulag system as a solution to dealing with labour shortages while avoiding migration