The @US_FDA's overdue full approval of mRNA vaccines is holding us back from getting millions of more people protected, at a time of urgent need, with the Delta variant on the rise. My guest essay @nytopinionnytimes.com/2021/07/01/opi… w/ thanks for editing @jopearl
I start off w/ the paradox of FDA's accelerated approval of the Alzheimer's drug despite a 10-0 vote against it by their Advisory Committee, 2 clinical trials that did not show clinical benefit, and for any person w/Alzheimer's even though the trials were for early disease, MCI
Then a brief review of the exceptionally large, completed clinical trials and real world evidence for these vaccines—the 1st ever new vaccines to get Emergency Use Authorization (EUA)—now given to hundreds of millions of people /3
The US vaccination campaign has hit a plateau, having peaked in April (up to 4.5 M /day) and fallen off since then, just getting abs over 1 million again today nytimes.com/interactive/20… /4
A key point is that the FDA began reviewing the full licensure applications (called BLAs) at the end of last year on a rolling, iterative basis. That was started 7 months ago and there was more than ample time to do plant inspections and review manufacturing/production issues /5
Now we face the Delta variant, the most efficient version of the virus yet for finding new hosts, 40% more contagious than Alpha, need for 2-dose mRNA vaccine for full efficacy
Delta is now >30% of infections, cases are starting to rise in several states nytimes.com/interactive/20… 6
Full licensure by FDA will lead to required vaccination by health systems, the military, universities, private companies, etc (w/ accommodations of masks + frequent testing for people unwilling or unable to be vaccinated). Tens of millions of Americans will likely get vaxxed /7
The FDA, and @DrWoodcockFDA its acting Director, need to make this the #1 priority, inform the public, provide the timeline. They vigorously defended the Alzheimer's drug misguided approval but have yet to provide 1 word of guidance on this critical matter /f
Nothing could make more of a difference for getting US vaccinations amped up right now than the FDA's decision for full approval of vaccines
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This likely represents the Delta variant inflection point for the US, as cases start to increase in several states (log plot to show trend). Let's hope the rise is limited and without much in the way of hospitalizations and deaths.
A lot more people vaccinated would sure help
Mississippi, the least vaccinated state, starts to show an increase in cases. Had dropped to 3.5/100,000 and now back up to 6/100K. Delta is now approaching dominance there; sequencing is limited.
Sequencing data from Mississippi. There's plenty of Delta (B.1.617.2) there now, but confidence intervals are wide outbreak.info
The US is now over 30% Delta variant for new cases. So how could the 7-day average still be heading down, now at 3.2/100,000? Here compared w/UK trajectory, >93% Delta
There's no question that of the new cases in the US, many are Delta, but sequencing is minimal. The 30%+ is based on a limited sample (wide 95% CI) compared with the UK. Look at the numbers at bottom of US, UK graphs outbreak.info
The 30% Delta is very unevenly distributed. Missouri is >60% and is the hotspot of the US for new cases. Neighboring states Arkansas and Oklahoma are also heating up and have high Delta frequency.
While the Delta variant case frequency for US infections is ~20% overall by @CDCgov, there's marked heterogeneity among states ft.com/content/730e35… by @nikasgari and @jburnmurdoch (@FT estimates Delta prevalence much higher 37-42%)
The 3 states--Missouri, Utah, Arkansas--with highest Delta variant prevalence are all increasing in cases, leading the country (still relatively low cases/capita rates), going in the opposite direction as most of the country /2
There are other states with some increase in cases where Delta is out-competing Alpha /3
Genome editing with #CRISPR is the most important life science breakthrough of our time. It's a B.C. and A.C. We interviewed @WalterIsaacson about his new book, THE CODE BREAKER, which is a masterpiece medscape.com/viewarticle/95…
w/ transcript /1
We started the conversation reading 2 key passages that convey the significance of #CRISPR /2
The Delta variant: updates from the new @PHE_Uk report assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
1st dose vaccine (either AZ or Pfizer) quite protective vs hospitalization
Fully vaxxed vs unvaxxed:
Infections 7.7% vs 67%
Hospitalizations 8% vs 48%
Delta's secondary attack rate is coming down some in the latest dataset. Its enhanced transmission over alpha appears to be more in the 40-60% range
Reinfections by sequencing data: 311/1260 were Delta
This 71-page report is rich. And that 60% of infections are getting sequenced (91% are Delta) is quite impressive.
It makes the output from CDC and the genomic surveillance in the US particularly weak
Just a reminder how damn lucky we are to have hit 95% efficacy of 2 mRNA vaccines, setting such an unexpectedly high bar, right from the get go, in November 2020. nytimes.com/live/2021/06/1…
Using the variants as the explanation for low @CureVacRNA efficacy doesn't work, IMO, when the known ones, with substantial immune evasion, beta and delta, are not on the list
B.1.1.7 (alpha) is a variant of concern, globally dominant. It has essentially little/no immune escape. If there's beta or delta in the VOCs that should have been stipulated. The only other 1 is gamma (P.1) w/ intermediate evasion, not shown to materially affect other vaccines