While we’re waiting, some by - election trivia, because, let’s face it, up you’re up you are going to enjoy it

In modern British political history there have been four full calendar years without a single by election

1992, 1998, 2010 and 2020

(These were bad years)
Winston Churchill contested no fewer than five by elections

1899-Oldham
1908-Manchester North West
1908-Dundee
1917-Dundee
1924-Westminster Abbey
Labour might think it’s having a poor run at the moment but nothing by comparison to its longest stretch without a by election gain, 18 years between the 1939 Brecon and Radnorshire by election and 1957 in Lewisham North
But between the 1988 Glasgow Govan by election and the 2003 Brent East by election Labour successfully defended every seat it held at by elections- 30 holds in total. At over 14 years it’s the longest stretch for either of the Conservatives or Labour.
Last time a seat came up twice in a single Parliament?

Bootle in 1990
Last by election prompted by bankruptcy?

The 1928 Ashton under Lyne by election, Mr Cornelius Homan (Conservative) was declared bankrupt and a by election ensued. Labour’s Albert Bellamy won the seat and apart from the subsequent 1931 by election it’s been Labour ever since.
And here’s one which might have some salience tonight- governments winning seats from the opposition

V rare- happened five times since WW2.

2021: Hartlepool
2017: Copeland
1982: Mitcham and Morden
1960: Brighouse and Spenborough
1953: Sunderland South
(NB technically it’s happened six times but we should discount 1961 Bristol South East- technically Tories won it but only because Tony Benn was declared ineligible as he was a peer)
Told you you'd be glad to stay up

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More from @lewis_goodall

2 Jul
What does this mean?

Two broad categories for this

What happened in the constituency and what it means for national politics

Thread
In terms of what's happened in the constituency, several things were at play

1) As reported a few days ago, Labour felt its GOTV had really worked this time.
2) Leadbeater was a good candidate and respected locally. Attracted Tory support.

3) Galloway was successful at eating into Labour Muslim vote but intriguingly Labour likely did better than expected solidifying more traditional support and potential waverers. Maybe even bits of Tory vote
4) Part of that may have been Galloway himself. Those who REALLY didn't..
Read 14 tweets
2 Jul
NEW: LABOUR HOLD BATLEY AND SPEN

Results

LABOUR: 13296
CONSERVATIVE:12973
GALLOWAY: 8264
LIB DEM: 1254
YORKSHIRE: 816

Turnout: 47.6%
Maj: 323
.@kimleadbeater is the new MP for Batley and Spen.
Leadbeater: "I want to say a huge thank you to the police, who sadly I've needed more than ever over the last few weeks."
Read 5 tweets
1 Jul
I’ll let you into a secret

No-one knows who has won in Batley
But not long to find out! Will be on air later this morning on the BBC News channel as the results come through. There’s absolutely no world in which you shouldn’t stay up for it, frankly
As ever for those asking, no exit poll. Only done at general elections.
Read 4 tweets
30 Jun
Yesterday we broadcast the latest of our pieces on the building safety crisis. So often it's supposed the costs for leaseholders are arising as a result of changes in building safety law now. But it can also be about a failure in building safety which goes back decades.
Leaseholders at Transport House, as in many other places, believe that their building did not necessarily comply with building regulations even when it was built- in 2004. If so, it adds another layer of deep injustice to an already unjust story. Are they right to be concerned?
To try to answer that we have to go back to the relevant building regulations as they were then-the 2000 building regulations, which on fire spread said: “The external walls of the building shall adequately..."
Read 27 tweets
28 Jun
Football is actually quite good isn’t it
I mean it’s still no by election night but it’s not bad
That’s it I’m sold
Read 5 tweets
26 Jun
NEW: Matt Hancock has resigned from the government.
“Those of us who make these rules have got to stick by them and that’s why I’ve got to resign.”

Question is why that conclusion wasn’t reached yesterday when the govt line was it was a “private matter” and indeed at the start of the day that no “rules” had been broken.
Mr Hancock’s resignation letter:”We owe it to people who have sacrificed so much in this pandemic to be honest when we have let them down as I have done by breaching the guidance.”

Until this afternoon the No 10 line was that the PM “considered the matter closed.” What changed?
Read 7 tweets

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