Thread by @lewis_goodall

What does this mean?

Two broad categories for this

What happened in the constituency and what it means for national politics

Thread

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1410816426462560257

In terms of what's happened in the constituency, several things were at play

1) As reported a few days ago, Labour felt its GOTV had really worked this time.
2) Leadbeater was a good candidate and respected locally. Attracted Tory support.

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1410306064743120896?s=20

3) Galloway was successful at eating into Labour Muslim vote but intriguingly Labour likely did better than expected solidifying more traditional support and potential waverers. Maybe even bits of Tory vote
4) Part of that may have been Galloway himself. Those who REALLY didn't..

...want Galloway coalesced behind Leadbeater.
5) The Conservative campaign was very low key. He barely did interviews. Tight margins- it all matters.
6) The Tory national lead has shrunk in the last weeks. Hancock may have...

...played a part. Vaccine sheen may no longer be quite as shiny.

And for national politics?

The key thing about this is it buys Keir Starmer time. If he'd lost whispers about a challenge would have been very loud...

...he would have appeared even more embattled. This gives him clear space into the summer and party conference. What he does with that time will be crucial to rethink his strategy and work on his prospectus. His leadership was never based on ideological or intellectual fervour...

...it was always based on his being a "winner." Losing twice in a row would have been completely crushing- not least because, without that fervour or base in the party, he has little else.

It will also be a key morale boost to a Labour Party which has...

...been deeply demoralised since Hartlepool. Not least because this is Batley and Spen, it's Jo Cox's seat and of special emotive significance for the party.

None of this is to say that this is a deeply impressive win and that Labour's on its way to government. If Labour...

...path to Downing St were assured, if Starmer had taken the country by storm then there would be no question of their retaining it. The fact the Tories were close adverts to their robust political position.

That said- there was no split on the right. If Galloway hadn't stood...

...Labour would probably have won more strongly. Many Conservative MPs thought they were on path to victory.

What this shows and what Chesham and Amersham showed is that there are limits to Conservative hegemony. That might not sound like much but given the tenor of politics...

...since 2019, it actually really is.

Also phew

Something else which is important

Lib Dem vote was down- likely transference to Labour (they also say they took some votes from the Tories)

And no Green candidate. Again, with such a tight margin, may have made the difference.

NB To those taking issue with the word “traditional” here (essentially adverting to older, white working class voters) you’ve got a point, it’s a clumsy term to use given Muslim voters have been a key part of the Labour coalition for a long time. 6am inarticulate brain-apols