Putin boasts that he could have sunk a British warship and nothing would have happened. Xi Jinping says he'll take Taiwan, an independent nation, when he wants. Testing the waters for a response. And?
Everyone saying "it's just words" will act surprised when action follows words, as it did in Ukraine and Hong Kong. Deterrence is based on standing up to the smallest aggressions to prevent bigger ones.
Putin and Xi know well that the West has the power to stand up to them. So when they choose not to, it's interpreted as a green light, and the "grave concerns" as performance.
The danger is when this goes on for so long, they start to run yellow lights and then red lights, creating a real crisis and forcing a response when the stakes are far higher.

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More from @Kasparov63

26 Jun
Joke on Russian internet: "Putin showing Merkel and Macron the salary charts of Rosneft and Gazprom."
Dependence on dictatorships like Putin's Russia is a package deal. You can't separate business from human rights and defending your democracy. The corruption spreads like a gas leak until it explodes.
Europe can't separate energy or business from politics when Putin won't. The list of ways to defend and deter includes "dictatorship substitution". I wrote about it specifically re energy in 2015: energyfuse.org/garry-kasparov…
Read 6 tweets
20 Jun
Putin got what he wanted the moment the summit with Biden was announced. We still don't know what Biden wanted. My op-ed on Geneva for @CNNOpinion. edition.cnn.com/2021/06/19/opi…
To change Putin's behavior, target things that affect his calculus of staying in power. Threats to his money & his mafia gang will work. Threats to national interests and the Russian people do not, because he doesn't care.
The summit was shorter than expected, and it's a blessing when bad food comes in small portions. Biden was fine, but it's irrelevant unless followed by action. Putin will know he's yet another American paper tiger and the next attack will prove it.
Read 4 tweets
16 Jun
EU keeps caving in to Putin without American leadership. Biden was supposed to stop that, even campaigned on it. He called Putin a killer—correctly. But looking tough in Geneva or using strong words doesn’t matter. Action matters, and so far Biden is failing that test.
We know the summit is good for Putin, or he wouldn’t do it. And everything Trump did was about Trump. But Biden? It’s not about him. To give such a gift to a killer who attacked the US, you have to make the case to the American people and he hasn’t tried.
The Russian hacks against the US are recent! You don’t normalize that behavior. When someone robs your house, you don’t ask him for a nice meeting in Geneva. You want him arrested, you want your stuff back. And if he does it again? And again?
Read 6 tweets
15 Jun
Mike, is this tweet from 2007?! This is what the West has been saying for 14 years. "If Putin keeps doing all these terrible things, THEN.." and he keeps doing them. It's 2021, everyone knows what Putin is.
Every new US administration doesn't press the reset button, they press the snooze button. Putin doesn't reset, he doesn't change, and he won't until someone stands up to him.
Putin goes through the same motions with every new democratic leader. They get to act tough for a moment; he gets to stay in power and keep looting Russia, attacking the world order, and his mafia pals live like tsars--in the free world of course.
Read 4 tweets
9 Jun
Biden calls climate change the most dangerous threat to US security right before sitting down with Putin, the actual most dangerous clear and present threat to US security. foxnews.com/politics/biden…
One, you can do both. You can fight climate change and stand up to dictators at the same time. The commander and chief calling the climate the #1 threat is another unforced error. And for what? To impress whom?
Two, who is running the show? Is John Kerry, who never met a dictator he couldn't appease, swapping vital security issues for absurd climate talks with authoritarian regimes that will never honor them?
Read 4 tweets
8 Jun
I hope it's true and that there are people in the Biden admin who see Putin clearly, and how to deal with him. But that still wouldn't mean they will be listened to enough at the top, which is all that matters. cnn.com/2021/06/08/pol…
The American people should know why President Biden is meeting with a man he correctly called "a killer." What is on the table? Ukraine? Hacking? How will we know if it's a success or not? Putin already got what he wanted, and may get more; what about the US?
The Biden admin's talking points about a "show of strength" in person are absurd. No matter how tough Biden acts in Geneva, he already gave Putin the status he craves and depends for his power and money. Even a win-win with a hostile dictator is a defeat.
Read 4 tweets

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