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3 Jul, 4 tweets, 1 min read
Good initial news for Garcia in early count of NYC absentee ballots.

She is overperforming in Manhattan mail-ins (up 38/13 over Adams, just among 1st-choice votes, compared to 32/19 among in-persons). And we know Manhattan overrepresented.

nytimes.com/2021/07/02/nyr…
No question that this data should be released by the New York Board of Elections in full and with details if it’s going to be known & reported by the press—not drip drip in this way.
Garcia has netted at least 6,000 votes over Adams — erasing 40% of her total final-round deficit over him— with the first 24K absentees counted in Manhattan (Adams’s worst borough by far).

She’ll likely net even more among those 24K once RCV is run.
We’d need to know RCV process of those ballots, & what’s happening in other boroughs, to know if enough for Garcia. AND “drip drip” nature of results (see above) means we don’t know Wiley’s important numbers.

Meanwhile, other boroughs have counted:

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More from @Taniel

Taniel Profile picture
27 Jun
NEW: Marine Le Pen's far-right party has failed to win any of France's regions in today's regional elections.

(It fell well short of its pre-election aim of winning several regions & its pre-runoff goal of winning Provence; overall, far further from a win than in 2015.)
The usual center-left (Socialist Party) & center-right (LR) parties have each kept the regions they'd governed since 2015.

A strong night for the right. But also a big relief for the left that keeps its 5 regions & strong local power despite all else.
Emmanuel Macron's party, which swept 2017 national elections, is again routed & largely irrelevant to these elections. Came in 4th or even 5th in many regions.

But Macron & Le Pen remain dominant as individual candidates, & remain favored to make Top 2 in 2022 presidential race.
Read 4 tweets
Taniel Profile picture
23 Jun
Progressive or socialist challengers just ousted the mayors of Rochester, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, in past 3 weeks. Left activists got a wave judge wins in PA. Larry Krasner won 2 to 1, to little effort from reform-skeptics to understand what they got wrong. That’s just past month.
If you care about what’s happening in local politics, of course the probable Adams win is a big defeat for the left. Who would deny it? Other results don’t erase that.

But acting like only NYC’s mayor race matters — & nothing happened since... Warren? — predictable but tiresome.
Like, I get it. It’s NYC. Everyone covered it (whereas it’s hard to see, say, what the Manhattan DA result or the activism in Syracuse or Buffalo mean). It’s easier to fit in the story everyone wants to tell but didn’t get to after Philly. But it’s all so trope-y.

me this am
Read 4 tweets
Taniel Profile picture
23 Jun
Something fascinating happened in Erie County (Buffalo’s county) tonight. And no, I’m not talking about the mayor’s race.

The local Democratic establishment faceplanted in a different way — this time in trying to make a fearmongering candidate into the local sheriff.
The local party tried to hand the nomination to a man who went on to amplify the GOP DA’s attacks on Dem lawmakers’ parole reform.

He lost today to Kim Beatty, whose platform has the following section that seems like it’s clearly calling him out:
Beaty, a black woman, dropped out of the campaign at some point this year after the local Dem party endorsed her opponent.

Beaty said the head of the local Dem Party said he wouldn’t endorse her because she doesn’t look like “what a sheriff looks like.” buffalonews.com/news/local/gov…
Read 4 tweets
Taniel Profile picture
23 Jun
What elections should you be watching tonight besides the mayoral election?!

Well, I have more than a dozen in mind. Here's my list of the #overlookedelectionstakes, an hour away from polls closing! And follow me here for updates as results come in.
1️⃣ The Manhattan DA election!

This is a big one. Progressives have been splitting the vote, but will a reform candidate make it after all?

Here's my thread on 5 reasons the race matters. A lot.
2️⃣ The Buffalo mayoral election!

The incumbent mayor is facing a challenge from the left, supported by DSA & WFP. The mayor's record on policing is a big issue here.

here is some of why it matters: theappeal.org/how-a-troubled…
newrepublic.com/article/162788….
Read 9 tweets
Taniel Profile picture
21 Jun
The policy stakes of DA elections are always so obscure. This year, I got to work with @SamMellins & @akashvmehta on putting out a series on how the Manhattan DA race could change the city — what candidates are saying EXACTLY & why it matters.

It's been a great ride. A thread:
1️⃣ Turns out the Manhattan DA's office has a ton of discretion on the power & resources of a citywide office that's fueled the war on drugs, the Special Narcotics Prosecutor.

A great opportunity to look at how local institutions work, & space for change.

theappeal.org/politicalrepor…
On the Special Narcotics Prosecutor's office, the candidates were very split on what should be done: especially when it comes to the power-move the DA's office could pull: withdraw staff it lends.

theappeal.org/politicalrepor… Image
Read 9 tweets
Taniel Profile picture
21 Jun
Marine Le Pen’s far-right party got 19% in today’s regional elections in France — a significant drop from the high 28% it had gotten in the country’s most recent regional elections, in 2015, & also quite a bit less than polls indicated.
Exit polling is suggesting people who’d voted for Le Pen in the presidential election last time (powering her rise) were far less likely to turn out today, than people who’d voted for other presidential candidates. (Parallels some US questions.) lemonde.fr/politique/arti…
The presidential election, next year, will have a different dynamic and Le Pen is still favored to make the Top 2 runoff.

Noteworthy to see that, in France, there’s now a string of recent elections where polling is overstating her party’s strength; breaks usual assumptions.
Read 4 tweets

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