Takes 3-4 weeks for coronavirus cases to translate into deaths.
3-4 weeks ago, we were around 5,000 to 6,000 new cases a day. Now we're at 27,000.
Do the maths.
3-4 weeks ago, we were around 5,000 to 6,000 new cases a day. Now we're at 27,000.
Do the maths.
And yet, there is a deceit playing out every day in the pages of the tabloids, aided and abetted by willing politicians: the pretense that today's death rate is somehow reflective of today's new caseload.
The pandemic is all about gazing in the rearview mirror. Always has been.
The pandemic is all about gazing in the rearview mirror. Always has been.
Here's an example from the front page of the Daily Mail website right now...
It actually commits two deceits in one, because it also doesn't account for the fact that the number of deaths reported ALWAYS falls at the weekend. (We're at 15 today, up from 11 this day last week.)
It actually commits two deceits in one, because it also doesn't account for the fact that the number of deaths reported ALWAYS falls at the weekend. (We're at 15 today, up from 11 this day last week.)
Weirdly, it's easier to spin a false narrative about deaths when the pandemic is REALLY out of control.
Why? Because cases are shooting up, yet deaths "stay the same". (That's because they haven't caught up, of course.)
So deaths as a proportion of cases look lower and lower.
Why? Because cases are shooting up, yet deaths "stay the same". (That's because they haven't caught up, of course.)
So deaths as a proportion of cases look lower and lower.
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