Thread by @tomaspueyo

The main reason why the US is the power it is today is because of immigration.

The main reason why the US is dwindling is because of lack of immigration.

The only thing that can reverse the US' decline is allowing massive immigration.

Thread. 🧵

The history of the US' rise is the history between 1850 and 1950.

GDP = population * GDP per capita.

For all the rhetoric about how the US is such a special country, it's not that much more productive than other Western democracies.

And as you might know if you follow me, I argue that this higher GDP per capita comes more from its geography than anything else.

unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com/p/world-chessb…

What the US did have much better than other Western countries between 1850 and 1950, however, is massive *population* growth.

People were escaping war and famine in Europe for American opportunity—which mostly came from the amazingly productive Mississippi heartland

That population growth has dried out. It's now the turn of India, China, and Africa

Their GDP per capita will also keep growing faster than the US' in the long term, simply because they're catching up

Faster population growth + faster GDP/capita growth = faster GDP growth. It's inevitable.

The US can be as productive as it wants, but in the 21st Century technological diffusion happens at the speed of light. It's a Red Queen's Race.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Queen…

What it *can* do, however, is grow its population faster.
That's how it exploded in the 19th Century.
It could replicate it in the 21st.
That would mean opening up its borders to all the immigrants who want to come.
I doubt it will do it.

Either the US opens its borders or it should get used to being yet another country in a multipolar world.

I talk about this, and a comparison with the rise and fall of Rome (among other things) in this week's premium article.
unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com/p/the-rise-and…

Note 1: there is one other way to maintain its standing: automation (which decouples GDP from population). I'll explore that in much more depth in a future article.

Note 2: this also tells us lots about where other countries are going, eg China