Thread by @DMinghella

Johnson has made a terrible, terrible decision today. Here's my summary of why:

1 (of 10) - Cases are surging. The first 19 days of July alone will produce *one million* new cases.

2 - Of these 1 million cases, 10-20% will develop long covid. This is a serious, multi-organ problem with unknown long-term impacts. That's 100,000 to 200,000 more sufferers, by the way. Created in the first 19 days of July alone.

3 - But aren't deaths, at least, low? Yep, but remember the lag. Victims take a while to die, especially as our treatments are better. Public Health England's Technical Briefing 17 suggests 0.3% of Delta cases will die. With a million new cases, that means 3,000 new deaths.

4 - By the way, the same Technical Briefing shows hospitalisations running at around 3.7% - meaning of the million cases, they expect 37,000 A&E arrivals. Folk frightened for their lives. Been there, done that.

Remember, these are Public Health England's stats, not mine.

5 - And it doesn't stop with that million cases to 19 July. It keeps on growing until something makes it stop. What will make it stop? Not Bolsonaro Boris's Step 4, that's for sure. It will keep on doubling and doubling and doubling.

6 - Hang on, you say, what about vaccines? They'll stop the wave, won't they? Not any time soon, I'm afraid. That's why we're seeing a wave now. Vaccines are not stopping it. Because the virus still has a whopping *25 million* Brits as potential hosts.

7 - And have you noticed something, not often mentioned? The vaccination programme has slowed markedly. We need that ramped up, and fast.

8 - In summary, there will be millions of cases.
They will produce hundreds of thousands of long covid sufferers.
They will hospitalise tens of thousands.
They will kill thousands.
The wave won't stop by itself. And - petrol on fire - it will be made worse, not better, by Step 4.

9 - And finally, Johnson has asked, "If we don't open up now, then when?"

Answer: When we've achieved population immunity. We have vaccines, so let's vaccinate.

Not rocket science. In fact, for a while it seemed to be our sensible plan.

10 - Bonus question: "When should we *not* open up?"

Answer: "Not when prevalence is high, and soaring. Not then. Never then. And not when 25m people are still susceptible."

Johnson has one job to do. The jab job. He should grow a pair, abandon Step 4 and get the jab job done.

Okay - one more since they're giving it credence on the news:

11 - Wouldn't it be worse to open up in the autumn - better to "go early" than when schools are returning, etc?

This is just admitting that you're pouring petrol on the fire. Instead of *putting the fire out*.

And, correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the autumn coming anyway? What's to stop the fire raging ever faster between now and then, so we go into that period in an even worse place? The answer can't be the vaccines, because if it were, they'd have no fear of opening up in autumn.

Think about that. It means they are effectively admitting that the vaccine programme won't be effective against this Delta wave even by autumn. Wow. Just wow.