COVID Update: There is potentially news out of Israel worth paying attention to.
One implication is when it makes sense to boost again in the US. 1/
One implication is when it makes sense to boost again in the US. 1/
Some very preliminary data shows a reduction in vaccine efficacy to mild disease— potentially somewhere between 60-80% (still >90% vs serious). 2/
Does this mean Delta is evading vaccines more than we thought? Data on the vaccines v Delta is still quite solid & this could be an outlier.
But if the data hold, the most likely conclusion is not that Delta is escaping the vaccine. It’s closer to the opposite. 3/
But if the data hold, the most likely conclusion is not that Delta is escaping the vaccine. It’s closer to the opposite. 3/
Instead it’s possible that this is a signal that immunity could simply be waning in certain populations. Recall that Israelis vaccinated before the US. So our first sign of a vaccine waning will likely be seen in Israel.
Could this be an early sign of waning immunity? 4/
Could this be an early sign of waning immunity? 4/
Israeli officials are meeting tomorrow to discuss whether to recommend a third Pfizer booster sooner rather than later.
Data we have seen is that immunity likely wanes among older people before younger people. 5/
Data we have seen is that immunity likely wanes among older people before younger people. 5/
Whether 65 and above or 50 and above, the first recommendation about boosts is likely to be for “older” people.
(At 54 I take some issue with the characterization of either of these groups as “older.” I am going with “more seasoned” or simply “wiser.”) 🙂 6/
(At 54 I take some issue with the characterization of either of these groups as “older.” I am going with “more seasoned” or simply “wiser.”) 🙂 6/
There is evidence that immunity wanes more quickly with age (er, wisdom).
The current thinking is that the boosts will be exactly the same formulation as the original doses— making it simple to roll out. 7/
The current thinking is that the boosts will be exactly the same formulation as the original doses— making it simple to roll out. 7/
How does any of this change recommendations on masking or precautions we should take?
At some point, in areas where cases begin to grow, taking precautions like masks will make sense again until people are boosted. 8/
At some point, in areas where cases begin to grow, taking precautions like masks will make sense again until people are boosted. 8/
The data probably won’t say that date is today in most places. But as I say on @inthebubblepod here, it’s not about the science alone. It’s about what makes us all comfortable.
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People who take from this there is no point in getting vaccinated because they aren’t perfect are quickly running the exact wrong direction.
The conclusion when we see more cases will likely be MORE not LESS reason to get vaccinated. 9/
The conclusion when we see more cases will likely be MORE not LESS reason to get vaccinated. 9/
The US is prepared. Deaths & hospitalizations are preventable with vaccinations even if or when they wane. More sequencing, enough vaccines & close monitoring of COVID.
Not getting vaccinated is the real risk. Every day it becomes even clearer. /end
Not getting vaccinated is the real risk. Every day it becomes even clearer. /end
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