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David Henig Profile picture
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6 Jul, 4 tweets, 1 min read
Sorry, a UK-EU 'Swiss style' veterinary agreement isn't happening any time soon, and it doesn't help the EU to keep mentioning this, just as it doesn't help the UK to deny what they signed up for.
The EU should equally be aware that 'legal action' over the Northern Ireland protocol is not quite the threat it might seem short of suspending tariff preferences. rte.ie/news/brexit/20…
The stalemate over the Northern Ireland protocol is a factor of UK and EU both refusing to do what the other wants, unable to threaten much apart from a trade war neither actually want, and nervous of going too far to stir up other side. We are truly, properly stuck.
NB I am not saying there is a moral equivalence between the EU saying a Swiss style arrangement is the answer to the NI Protocol, and the UK trying to use the threat of violence to force EU change. But ultimately it all leads to a stalemate.

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More from @DavidHenigUK

David Henig Profile picture
7 Jul
My review of Brexit and UK trade policy six months in is summed up in two contradictory statements:

- Global Britain does not require the EU
- Nissan need an EU deal otherwise they won't stay

Which given Brexit must be a 'success' means problems...

ecipe.org/blog/unresolve…
It becomes increasingly clear that difficult stakeholder relationships and lack of innovation in UK trade policy is a feature not a bug of this government. Because it cannot be honest about Brexit, about the fact the pure Brexit it wants is not actually deliverable.
Similarly there is no detailed trade strategy, because that would open up questions about the EU relationship which the government doesn't want. Similarly no impact assessment of freeports, which would be rather inconvenient. The government doesn't want to get over Brexit.
Read 8 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
6 Jul
Spain starting better than I expected, still think if England get to the final I'd rather play them than Italy though.
Spain did to Italy what Italy did to Belgium, except for scoring. Two good teams, fancy Italy to improve second half.
Absolutely this, think the Italians shaded the facial hurt when a decision went against them
Read 8 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
6 Jul
Three facets of UK trade and investment policy collide in stories like this - political rhetoric usually tough (towards the EU or China), economic openness particularly if a levelling up agenda, with no overarching strategy. theguardian.com/business/2021/…
Does it matter if the UK government talks tough towards the EU or China but ultimately doesn't follow through? Arguably that's economically better. But it leaves confusion as to intent, which is no basis for either investment or international relations.
I have a long-ish read evaluating UK trade policy coming soon, with one big question unresolved. Is big talk and little action an ongoing consequence of a failed Brexit debate, more about the character of the Prime Minister, or are the two so bound we can no longer tell?
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
5 Jul
It didn't have to be but this is indeed the story of the Brexit successive governments have chosen. Tom Hayes @BEERG on scintillating form in his last Brexit blog. A few choice cuts to follow... beergbrexit.blog/2021/07/04/the… Image
A brief word on sovereignty - there is so much more that can be said on the subject of 21st century sovereignty, but we'll have to wait for someone's doubtless upcoming 'Brexit comprehensive reader' Image
So important to the Brexit story, and so easily overlooked, is the belief that the UK is a more natural entity than the EU, thus after the vote the EU would fade away. A delusion that continues to cast a shadow over UK politics. Can Brexit be a success if the EU still exists? Image
Read 5 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
4 Jul
I think by now pretty much the entirety of the EU, plus those watching in the US, plus Northern Ireland politicians, believe the UK government is operating in bad faith over the Northern Ireland protocol. Which of course is no basis for progress. theguardian.com/politics/2021/…
It would seem more reasonable for the UK government to say things aren't working out as we thought if it hadn't tried to deny what the Northern Ireland protocol meant and break international law last year, or spent this year solely blaming the EU. The insincerity is glaring.
Without wanting to say this in so many words the EU and US believe the UK is inciting unionist communities to get out of a treaty. They struggle to negotiate with that. Meanwhile the UK government has never accepted the Brexit Northern Ireland trilemma.
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
4 Jul
In line with European and US fashion for economic intervention. But is a competition with Conservatives over who can reward more cronies wise? Also plays into the continuing wrong narrative that the UK makes nothing. And does nothing for most workers. theguardian.com/politics/2021/…
Politics understood, desire to make more in the UK etc. But we do make lots of stuff here from whisky to rolls royce engines, JCB, sports cars etc. Just not employing as many as they used to do. As well as being a services world leader. Then trade this for stuff we don't produce.
As is increasingly noted, the chances of bringing back the same manufacturing to the same regions which lost it many years ago is ridiculously small. Improving the jobs and self employed conditions, absolutely. Smarter procurement yes - but that is not in any way new.
Read 4 tweets

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