Germany (and other countries heavily relying on fossil energy imports today) need to switch to alternative energy carriers in the future to become climate neutral.
The list of options is long:
⚗️Which energy carrier?
🗺️From where?
🚢By which transport mode?
The list of options is long:
⚗️Which energy carrier?
🗺️From where?
🚢By which transport mode?
Highlights below.
You can find our preprint (not yet peer reviewed!) on arxiv.org/abs/2107.01092 . With @Michael_Dueren @nworbmot @jlugiessen @TUBerlin .
You can find our preprint (not yet peer reviewed!) on arxiv.org/abs/2107.01092 . With @Michael_Dueren @nworbmot @jlugiessen @TUBerlin .
We modelled 9 energy supply chains (ESCs) from 8 different exporting countries for optimal investment.
Including
* production side (GIS potential analysis, synthetic hourly RES time-series),
* considered local electricity demand before export
* conversion steps along each ESCs
Including
* production side (GIS potential analysis, synthetic hourly RES time-series),
* considered local electricity demand before export
* conversion steps along each ESCs
Our results yield LCoE and LCoH (Levelised Costs of Energy and Hydrogen) delivered to Germany.
Why LCoH? Some applications in e.g. industry will need molecular hydrogen rather than the energy.
Results for 2030, 2040 and 2050 at 5% and 10% WACC are available.
Why LCoH? Some applications in e.g. industry will need molecular hydrogen rather than the energy.
Results for 2030, 2040 and 2050 at 5% and 10% WACC are available.
We find the lowest cost energy and hydrogen imports to be available at 40.6 EUR/MWh (LHV) to 46.8 EUR/MWh (LHV) from Denmark, Spain and the Western Asia/Northern Africa region (Morocco, Egypt, Saudi Arabia) by hydrogen gas pipeline.
But especially for Denmark supply is limited.
But especially for Denmark supply is limited.
The less talked-about dependency between costs and volumes exported from a region:
Countries like Denmark have less RES potential & at steeper cost dynamic than e.g. Saudi Arabia.
Supply curves are influenced by export volumes + local electricity demand today/future.
Countries like Denmark have less RES potential & at steeper cost dynamic than e.g. Saudi Arabia.
Supply curves are influenced by export volumes + local electricity demand today/future.
Cost drivers?
* RES
* chemical synthesis
* chemical feedstock storage
Electrolysis only to a lesser degree.
* RES
* chemical synthesis
* chemical feedstock storage
Electrolysis only to a lesser degree.
Takeaway from our investigation for Germany?
Importing chemical energy carriers or hydrogen in the future appears in general cheaper than domestically producing their counterparts in Germany.
(LCoE for 2030, 10% WACC, domestic production in Germany in black)
Importing chemical energy carriers or hydrogen in the future appears in general cheaper than domestically producing their counterparts in Germany.
(LCoE for 2030, 10% WACC, domestic production in Germany in black)
Results are always sensitive to the many assumptions made. Primarily to WACC and RES.
A quantification of sensitivities requires evaluation on an individual energy supply chain basis. We did so exemplary (Spain -> Germany, H2 (g) pipeline, 2030, 10% WACC).
A quantification of sensitivities requires evaluation on an individual energy supply chain basis. We did so exemplary (Spain -> Germany, H2 (g) pipeline, 2030, 10% WACC).
But there does not seem to be one-chemical-fits-all-solution: Depending on the end use case, the distribution method and storage durations (which we did not consider) the results may change.
So it's best to make the research accessible for everyone.
So it's best to make the research accessible for everyone.
All our outcomes are available:
Results on Zenodo (zenodo.org/record/5055706).
Code & Model on GitHub (github.com/euronion/trace)
Pre-print on arXiv (arxiv.org/abs/2107.01092)
Analysis based on #opendata and #opensource software (#pypsa #snakemake) ready for #REUSE .
Results on Zenodo (zenodo.org/record/5055706).
Code & Model on GitHub (github.com/euronion/trace)
Pre-print on arXiv (arxiv.org/abs/2107.01092)
Analysis based on #opendata and #opensource software (#pypsa #snakemake) ready for #REUSE .
Happy to discuss & feedback welcome!
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