I’m struggling with how best to stress how fragile the global situation is, so I’ll be blunt:
Each week >2.6 million cases and >53,000 deaths are reported to @WHO
Reported, meaning that there are many others.
Stop and think about that.
(Short thread⬇️)
Compared to last week, there has been about (exact % will be shared in tomorrow @WHO sit rep):
➡️ 15% increases in cases in @WHOAFRO
➡️ 29% increase in @WHO_Europe (last week was 10%⬆️)
➡️ 14% increase in @WHOEMRO
➡️ 7% increased in @WHOSEARO
➡️ 10% increase in @WHOWPRO
Every death is a person—a parent, a grandparent, a son, a daughter, a friend—people who are loved, cherished, treasured.
The loss is unbearable. These losses are preventable.
The situation is getting worse, not better. There are >20 countries with exponential growth in cases right now…. in all regions of the world. This is not theoretical. This is happening right now.
There are too many countries that are struggling to regain control over COVID-19.
Globally, cases are increase in, due to several factors, including variants of #SARSCoV2 (latest is #Delta but there will be more), ⬆️social mixing & social mobility, inconsistent & unsupported PHSM, & inequitable vaccination.
We have tools, we have a global plan. We don’t have consistent policies globally—based on data and regular analyses—that are targeted, agile, time bound; that support people in keeping themselves & others safe.
Use of PHSM does not mean “lockdown”. It means having policies in place to lower risks every day. Surveillance, testing, supported health workers, training, adequate PPE, O2, 😷, 🤚🧼, avoid 3Cs, improved ventilation, vaccination (for those lucky enough to be offered one), etc.
We don’t have equitable distribution of tests, of treatments, of PPE, of vaccines… this is inexcusable bc this is fixable. There are solutions, partners, financing to solve this problem…but the world is not collectively doing enough to address this.
↗️Global/regional trends in cases/deaths
➡️Updated VOI/VOC definitions (reflecting feedback since original pub in Feb)
↗️latest geographic distribution of VOCs… #Delta in 104 countries; alpha in 122
…and more ⬇️
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Conclusions: Rapid replacement means that epidemiological assessment of new variants must be conducted quickly and regularly if PHSM are to continue to reduce the spread of SARS-CoV-2.
Given limitations and inherent delays in detecting emerging variants and investigating their phenotypic impacts, the use and adjustment of PHSM should continue to be informed by traditional epidemiological surveillance.
There is a lot of concern over the Delta (B.1.617.2) variant and there should be. The #SARSCoV2 virus is dangerous, & more transmissible variants are even more dangerous.
What we know: available analyses show that there is increased transmissibility of delta, more than the ancestral virus, more than alpha variant. We are seeing convergent evolution.
There is a suggestion of increased severity, but more info is needed to understand this.
Diagnostics work; many studies are underway related to vaccines, but available results suggest vaccines work against severe disease & death.
The labels for VOI/VOC are simple, easy to say & remember & are based on the Greek alphabet, a system that was chosen following wide consultation & a review of several potential systems.
The labels don’t replace existing scientific names, which convey impt scientific info and will continue to be used in research (& by @nextstrain@GISAID & Pango).
These labels will help with public discussion about VOC/VOI as the numbering system can be difficult to follow.
We expect that more variants will continue to be detected as the virus circulates and evolves and as sequencing capacities are enhanced worldwide.
It’s even more critical we drive down and keep down transmission. @WHO#COVID19
As we have said, each variant identified needs to be properly assessed, which is why WHO established the Virus Evolution Working Group in June 2020, and why there is a Global Monitoring and Assessment Framework for #SARSCoV2 variants, coordinated by @WHO.
Re the report of variant from Vietnam: @WHO 🇻🇳 country office & @WHOWPRO are working w MOH 🇻🇳. The variant detected is B.1.617.2 with an additional mutation(s), but more info soon.
Remember: variants are constellations of mutations. Many VOI/VOC have similar mutations
Variants of #SARSCoV2 are circulating, some with increased transmissibility. However, the preparedness, readiness and response actions that are needed remain the same, and should be reinforced.
Countries need access to vaccines and should administer #COVID19 vaccines according to their National Deployment and Vaccination Plans. #COVAX@WHO
If you live in an area where #COVID19 is spreading:
➡️🚫mix w people outside of your household
➡️🚫crowds & gatherings
➡️stay🏠if you can (& open🪟) as many cannot bc of essential work
➡️reconsider travel
➡️💉when you can
➡️seek help when needed
play your part
😷🤧🤚🧼↔️🪟💉
Continued....
➡️isolate if a case (& call hotline or medical provider)
➡️quarantine if a contact
➡️help others where you can, but meet outdoors instead of indoors
➡️follow local guidance
Do what you can to help yourself, family and community
Do it for you, do it for them
Be kind
Be safe
Be informed
Be prepared
Be supportive
Be alert
Be ready
Have a plan, reach out for help and give yourself a break
We are in this together, and we will get through this together