The Lancet letter 2.0 is up. This time with a declaration of interests almost as long as the letter itself.
It's more nuanced than v1.0 but still makes the mistake of not understanding that a lab leak usually involves a virus collected from nature. thelancet.com/journals/lance…
Some again forgot to state their EcoHealth Alliance affiliation. So I would like to summarize their interests:
If it turns out Covid-19 is from a lab, several signatories affiliated with EcoHealth/PREDICT or collaborators of WIV could lose funding and/or public reputation.
For their peer-reviewed evidence for a natural origin, the letter points to 3 peer-reviewed articles all describing bat coronaviruses and 1 describing pangolins.
But actually none of them provide evidence of how SARS2 would've naturally emerged in Wuhan.
I was surprised that they cited reference 6 (an EcoHealth-WIV collaboration paper) because this is the paper that @franciscodeasis and @babarlelephant cracked, discovering that, in 2019, the WIV was working with 9 most closely related viruses to SARS2.
The 4th reference (number 5) that they cite as peer-reviewed evidence for natural origins is actually not peer-reviewed and I have addressed its 2-market hypothesis here:
I'm starting to get a little concerned about how closely top scientists check their references before signing onto letters. At least get one of your postdocs or students to please help you!
This continues to amaze me:
"PD joined the WHO–China joint global study on the animal origins of SARS-CoV-2 towards the end of 2020 and is currently a member. As per WHO rules, this work is undertaken as an independent expert in a private capacity, not as an EcoHealth... member"
@michaelzlin@TheLancet If simply the presence of wild animals for sale in Wuhan city is "strongest evidence" then may I point you to the presence of the largest SARSrCoV collection in the world also in Wuhan?
Both markets and labs sampled from regions where SARS2 relatives have been found in bats.
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Is there evidence that definitively supports SARS2 spilling over from animal to human at a market?
There is none. Existing evidence is consistent with a person bringing SARS2 into Huanan Seafood Market, resulting in a cluster of cases.
Yet, a 2-market hypothesis has emerged...
At least one virologist has repeatedly suggested that SARS2 spilled over not only once but twice in Wuhan city at different markets.
Why? Because at least one of the earliest SARS2 lineages was not observed among Huanan cases.
There are 2 major problems with this hypothesis.
1. The 2 early lineages (the one found in Huanan cases, and the other not found in Huanan cases) only differ by 2 letters out of 29.9K letters. It's much more likely SARS2 was introduced 1 time into humans.
I want to help people understand exactly what happened with these early Covid-19 sequences that were wiped off US-based and even China-based databases.
This was described in @jbloom_lab's recent preprint, which he updated with an actual email exchange between the authors & NCBI.
Neither one mentions the data that the authors had submitted to NCBI, a US-based public database that anyone can access internationally without a login or being IP-tracked.
"[Baric] wants to know what barriers were in place to keep a pathogen from slipping out into Wuhan’s population of 13 million, and possibly to the world."
@rowanjacobsen@techreview I would like to remind how incredibly difficult it was to even raise the -possibility- much less the plausibility of a lab leak one year ago.
Today many experts are saying that they always said a lab leak was possible and should be investigated. When? Where?
@rowanjacobsen@techreview In my view, the "consensus" has only recently (May 2021) become reasonable. That a large portion of scientists and journalists are finally saying "Of course we need to investigate all possible scenarios, including a lab leak!"
Timely article by @Schwartzesque on risky pathogen research.
I think the point that almost everyone can agree on is that the current framework+process for assessing potential pandemic pathogen work has to be completely revamped. businessinsider.com/covid-pandemic…
Now that more scientists are becoming able to process that Covid-19 might've (regardless of how likely) emerged due to research activities, it's time to transparently create a new set of functional review processes with non-scientist and international stakeholders.
US intelligence should really release what they know and put to bed all the confusion once and for all.
Were there WIV staffers sick with Covid symptoms in Nov 2019? Did one of their wives die? Or is this intelligence not solid? bloomberg.com/news/features/…
Dr Anderson was a visiting foreign scientist at WIV up to Nov 2019.