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Kashif Pirzada, MD Profile picture
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6 Jul, 7 tweets, 3 min read
Watching the UK, BC and elsewhere give up on containing Covid is frankly depressing. There is another way, herd immunity is achievable in most of Canada once kids <12 get their shots in Sept/Oct. We need to hold the line on masking, testing, tracing and isolating until then.
Why is it important to do this? Yes, vaccines likely lead to a mild illness in most vaccinated people, kids mostly get mild illness also, but just by the law of large numbers, many will still get seriously ill. Long Covid is also another big wildcard. scientificamerican.com/article/a-tsun…
The mathematics behind the herd immunity calculation by @dfisman is here:
Polling data showing high (89%) likely uptake in the Canadian population by @VoiceOfFranky here:
A great thread by @SabiVM on how to get to the final 7% - 17% of adult Canadians who haven't had the chance to get their shot, or are opposed to getting it for now:
Pfizer expects to apply for approval of their vaccines in Sept for kids 2-11:
aappublications.org/news/2021/05/0…
I go into some detail with @korisidaway at CHEK news. We are spitting distance to herd immunity. We can beat this pandemic, revive the economy and keep people safe at the same time! cheknews.ca/doctors-say-b-…

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More from @KashPrime

Kashif Pirzada, MD Profile picture
2 Jul
I outline here why BC and Alberta lifting mask mandates is reckless:
- Only 35% are fully vaxxed
- Kids <12 are unprotected
- Indoor spaces are dangerous without masks with an airborne virus
- Places that lifted mandates are backtracking ...
- It places the onus on small business owners to enforce mandates which will lead to conflict
- leaders really want to show that somehow its over, when it clearly is not, and is worsening in large parts of the world

Thanks to @AnitaSharma for the chance to speak.
Fully vaccinated people can transmit the virus to unvaccinated or partially vaccinated people, including children. Masks can help prevent this. This is from Singapore:
Read 15 tweets
Kashif Pirzada, MD Profile picture
21 Jun
A lot of concern about mixing the two mRNA vaccines. Due to the vagaries of global supply, most people who got Pfizer will be offered Moderna in the coming weeks. I'll show you why this is a great thing, and why its important to get your second shot as quickly as possible
A research group sequenced both vaccines from discarded vials, and found that the important spike protein encoding sections were almost exact matches to each other. Some minor differences in the 5' and 3' untranslated areas, used by cells for formatting

github.com/NAalytics/Asse…
If you look at the sequence between the start and stop codons (which tells cells where to start and stop encoding), its off by just one base pair at the end! Both match the spike protein sequence identified early on in the pandemic.
Read 11 tweets
Kashif Pirzada, MD Profile picture
14 Jun
With the Delta variant, we'll likely need ~90% vaccinated to get to herd immunity.
It's possible we'll get close to this, 89% of Canadians want to get vaccinated. This is out of the question in most of Europe and the US, where vaccine skepticism is much higher. Vaccine checks on arrival for travelers will be needed
Certain provinces will probably never get to herd immunity:
Read 6 tweets
Kashif Pirzada, MD Profile picture
8 Jun
It’s been a hard day for members of my family and broader community, seeing 3 generations of a whole family wiped out... who look very much like us, and did everything right. They were highly educated, loved this country, worked hard, the Canadian dream in every respect...
My family has been here 51 years, my father came in 1970 (after a harrowing stopover in Moscow, a story for another day) to join his siblings building a life here. He came to a young country full of promise, but blighted by attacks against South Asians.
ftp.issuu.com/uw_imprint/doc…
He and representatives of the community met with the editorial board of a tabloid newspaper in the 70s to get them to stop pushing race-baiting stories targeting the South Asian community. The response: 'We will print whatever sells newspapers.' Thankfully things are better now
Read 16 tweets
Kashif Pirzada, MD Profile picture
2 Jun
We've created this guide on how to protect yourself from an airborne virus using HEPA filters in offices and schools. A simple solution that needs to be used especially in the fall/winter when opening windows and doors will be less practical:
docs.google.com/document/d/17t…
CO2 monitors are an important component to this, and can roughly tell you how much of the air is fresh in a given room. Higher than 700 is risky, and the higher the number, the more you get 'rebreathed' air from another person possibly containing infectious virus.
The goal is to get to 6 ACH (air changes an hour), which is the minimum in most hospital settings. We describe how to calculate this, and what types of filters you should be buying.
Read 7 tweets
Kashif Pirzada, MD Profile picture
6 May
Data from @GovCanHealth which was obtained by @kellygrant1 at @globeandmail with some astonishing stats on effectiveness of the vaccines, even after a single dose. The calculations behind these numbers are here:
This matches roughly with similar stats published by Ontario Public Health. You can download it here: publichealthontario.ca/-/media/docume…
Also discussed here:
Much discussion about the new study from Qatar showing the second dose is more effective, but our situations are not comparable. They stuck to the 3w schedule, so could not study how immunity evolves after more time.
cp24.com/news/early-eff…
Read 7 tweets

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