From my PREVAIL piece today, "Incumbent Disasters," some interesting math on the "True One-Termers:"
[THREAD]
[THREAD]
1/
In 1976, Carter got 40.8 million out of a possible 81.5 million votes.
In 1980, Carter got 35.5 million out of a possible 86.5 million votes.
Carter fell from 50 to 41 percent of the vote, a nine-point drop.
In 1976, Carter got 40.8 million out of a possible 81.5 million votes.
In 1980, Carter got 35.5 million out of a possible 86.5 million votes.
Carter fell from 50 to 41 percent of the vote, a nine-point drop.
2/
This means that in that second election, the number of total votes went up, by about four million.
The number of votes for Carter went down, by over five million.
This means that in that second election, the number of total votes went up, by about four million.
The number of votes for Carter went down, by over five million.
3/
Going by percentage of the vote, Bush the Elder fared even worse:
In 1988, Bush I got 48.9 million out of a possible 91.6 million votes.
In 1992, Bush I got 39.1 million out of a possible 104.4 million votes.
Bush I fell from 53 to 37 percent of the vote, a 16-point drop.
Going by percentage of the vote, Bush the Elder fared even worse:
In 1988, Bush I got 48.9 million out of a possible 91.6 million votes.
In 1992, Bush I got 39.1 million out of a possible 104.4 million votes.
Bush I fell from 53 to 37 percent of the vote, a 16-point drop.
4/ Once again, in the second go-round, the number of total votes went up, by almost 13 million. The number of votes for Bush went down, by almost five million.
Of note: the presence of a strong third-party candidate in Perot certainly contributed to this dismal showing.
Of note: the presence of a strong third-party candidate in Perot certainly contributed to this dismal showing.
5/
Hoover had no such excuse, suffering an ass-kicking for the ages:
In 1928, he got 21.4 million out of a possible 36.8 m votes.
In 1932, he got 15.7 million out of a possible 39.7 m votes.
Hoover fell from 58.4 to 39.6 percent of the vote, a staggering 18.6-point drop.
Hoover had no such excuse, suffering an ass-kicking for the ages:
In 1928, he got 21.4 million out of a possible 36.8 m votes.
In 1932, he got 15.7 million out of a possible 39.7 m votes.
Hoover fell from 58.4 to 39.6 percent of the vote, a staggering 18.6-point drop.
6/
Of the last three True One-Termers to lose re-election, Trump is most similar to Hoover. Like Hoover, he is a Republican. Like Hoover, he was perceived as friendly to business.
Of the last three True One-Termers to lose re-election, Trump is most similar to Hoover. Like Hoover, he is a Republican. Like Hoover, he was perceived as friendly to business.
7/
Like Hoover, he presided over a national crisis, which his botched, ideologically-driven response only exacerbated. And like Hoover, voters fucking hated him. Trump’s approval rating peaked at 49 percent, and sank to 34 percent his last month in office.
Like Hoover, he presided over a national crisis, which his botched, ideologically-driven response only exacerbated. And like Hoover, voters fucking hated him. Trump’s approval rating peaked at 49 percent, and sank to 34 percent his last month in office.
8/
Going by the historical data, one might expect TFG's vote total to shrink, as befell Bush I, Carter, and Hoover. Instead, the exact opposite happened:
Going by the historical data, one might expect TFG's vote total to shrink, as befell Bush I, Carter, and Hoover. Instead, the exact opposite happened:
9/
In 2016, Trump got 62.9 million out of a possible 133.7 million votes.
In 2020, Trump got 74.2 million out of a possible 158.4 million votes.
Trump jumped from 46.0 to 46.9 percent of the vote, a 0.8-point increase.
In 2016, Trump got 62.9 million out of a possible 133.7 million votes.
In 2020, Trump got 74.2 million out of a possible 158.4 million votes.
Trump jumped from 46.0 to 46.9 percent of the vote, a 0.8-point increase.
10/
This means that in that second election, the number of total votes went up, by about 21.7 million. The number of votes for Trump also went up, by over 11 million.
None of this makes any sense—historically, statistically, anecdotally, any way you look at it.
This means that in that second election, the number of total votes went up, by about 21.7 million. The number of votes for Trump also went up, by over 11 million.
None of this makes any sense—historically, statistically, anecdotally, any way you look at it.
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