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Sam Trabucco Profile picture
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6 Jul, 7 tweets, 1 min read
How is it possible that it was correct for this plane to board 2 hours ago and then sit on the runway because of rain they already knew about
I’m like 60% sure the pilot is gonna have worked long enough that they force us to deplane and get a new pilot in another hour or two and I’m currently arranging a bloc to charter private if that happens AMA
People are replying with too many realistic explanations I’m worried my intent here wasn’t conveyed well
Observation: over time people are following the insane mask rules less and less. We’ve entered “everyone I can see has it below their nose at best” territory.
Can someone please revoke my access to twitter soon I can sense I’m gonna get insane.
OMG they’re taking dinner orders on the runway buckle up.
The sleeping pill I took 3 hours ago is proving to be a misstep.

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More from @AlamedaTrabucco

Sam Trabucco Profile picture
23 Jun
Word on the street is: this price graph is fucked up. What happened?

A thread about the calm, the storm, and how to tell the difference.
There have been a few prevailing narratives lately:
- China FUD driving prices down, U.S. maybe to follow?
- Bitcoin is bad for the environment, or at least Elon thinks so
- Maybe with this dip, some of the institutions who bought are under water and need to sell? (Saylor, etc.)
None of that is concrete, though, and people vacillate between over-stating the pieces of news they want to hear and under-stating the ones they don't. So let's break it down a little, and look at some stuff which *is* concrete.
Read 19 tweets
Sam Trabucco Profile picture
16 Jun
The macro market DOES drive crypto, but only when it has to. In March 2020, crypto had no choice but to go down with (e.g.) SPY — the whole world was watching, and when the whole world watches people will buy BTC when it lags below SPY, and vice-versa.
Honestly? Crypto traders don’t give a shit about what happens when the traditional markets aren’t going crazy. I literally couldn’t tell you which direction SPY moved .3% in (or whatever) yesterday.
But when SPY crashes 20%? Yeah, we’ve gotta follow it. And because we’re following it, our trades will follow it — not all the time, but enough for a correlation to exist.
Read 8 tweets
Sam Trabucco Profile picture
10 Jun
Let's look at two investors, Adam and Beth. Both are 25 years old, both make $200k/year (lump sum) and expect to keep doing so for their careers (not realistic, but let's just use that for now). Adam invests it all in a 5%/year fund, Beth's fund is 50/50 to make +30% and -10%.
By age 60, Adam will always have around $20m put away (ignoring taxes and expenses or whatever, but this is just a comparative exercise so it's OK to ignore thise) -- there's no uncertainty here.
What about Beth? Her EV on earnings each year is higher than Adam's, of course, but let's dig deeper. Let's look at her distribution of outcomes by age 60.

One natural question: what are the chances she has more money than Adam does?
Read 10 tweets
Sam Trabucco Profile picture
7 Jun
I'll be honest -- I was dreading this conference. I'm not great at meeting strangers, I dislike much of networking, I was vaguely concerned that crypto culture might be toxic in person, and I'm not wild about public speaking. Also, Miami is so hot.
How wrong I was! I enjoyed basically the entire trip -- it managed to be productive, invigorating, sentimental, and super fun all at once.
I was pretty sure the perfect timing + chance to speak meant this was the only conference I'd ever attend, but now I doubt it.

A thread about being wrong and not really making money but "generating personal value" or something.
Read 25 tweets
Sam Trabucco Profile picture
4 Jun
Let’s just say @SBF_Alameda was lied to about what “Tradjng Day” was gonna be Image
“We host the world’s best athletes and the world’s best entertainers, and we’re thrilled to welcome FTX” Image
“I may be the shortest one here” Image
Read 7 tweets
Sam Trabucco Profile picture
3 Jun
On a plane to Miami, thinking about the topic of the panel i’m on: Is it possible to time the market? It’s a great question, and one my priors were REALLY wrong about.

A thread about being wrong and making money.
My initial training in quant trading came at SIG, trading more traditional assets than crypto (let’s hear it for fixed income ETFs). These are markets that have existed forever, and many large, skilled firms have traded them forever.
In these markets, it’s really hard for there to be large, fairly obvious, predictable moves — if those existed, these big quant firms would have figured them out too and arbed them out (or similar).
Read 14 tweets

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