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Tinashe

@baba_nyenyedzi

1 Jul

1/9
Twitter and Economists

In Zim to be specific & Africa in general there is a stiff neck attitude amongst scholars & economic thought leaders to avoid Twitter & social media.

This is most unfortunate & JH university has articulated the impact of social media on Economics

2/9

In their words

“The technological progress in our modern societies has witnessed the emergence of persons who deploy different means of communication across social networks, seeking to generate an impact among their audiences.

3/9

These efforts in social media communications attempt to alter consumption preferences and patterns, political choices, as well as reinforce or modify opinions of all sorts and stripes. Individuals who attain greater relevance due to effects they trigger on third parties are

Read 9 tweets

Tinashe

@baba_nyenyedzi

24 Jun

Kuvimba declares US$5.2m in dividend. How in the world of the living, this is a good thing is beyond me. Perhaps a reflection of our tolerance for pain & suffering as a people.

Firstly, it's not even clear to the tax payer how these assets were acquired and at what cost

How do farmers, War vets, Datvest nominees & other investment vehicles own what was private companies that owed creditors north of US$100m. To whom erstwhile shareholders were paid out north of US$100m. The cost of investment must be established & how the money was paid.

Secondly. GOZ is mandated by our constitution to take care of public health facilities & schools. How many people have died, kids failed for lack of investment. Therefore resources were diverted to buy mining companies & declare a dividend to spurious causes outside the mandate..

Read 6 tweets

Tinashe

@baba_nyenyedzi

19 Jun

1/10

Economic survey by Afrobarometer .. my thoughts

The survey was carried out between April and May. After the Agriculture harvest.

It comes after the WB report that 49% of citizens live under extreme poverty

It’s worth considering what the people themselves are saying.

2/10
The 67% of people believe the country is going in the wrong direction.

There is a gapping disparity between what GOZ says & lived reality.

Agriculture contributes 9.3% of GDP. A good harvest impact on our economy is now negligible. GOZ is out of touch with reality.

3/10
Does it mean GOZ will change course? Especially after launching its National Development Strategy NDS1?

Despite the rejection of NDS1 by the people, GOZ will not change direction. Because of GOZ paternalistic attitudes. Even in the face of hard facts & evidence.

Read 11 tweets

Tinashe

@baba_nyenyedzi

16 Jun

1/13
Who is the risk taker in business?

I realize most people even Economists don’t understand risk taking. This thread hopes to bring to fore risk taking in an enterprise.

I will illustrate with an example that is familiar with many of us in Zimbabwe. A diaspora investment

2/13
Imagine a Zimbabwean working in the City in London and earning £10k a month and living a very comfortable life. No serious worries except long hours at work & the occasion rant from the girlfriend.

3/13
They visit Zim one Christmas holiday and meet up with friends. As often happens in these meet up’s- ideas are exchanged and opportunities explored. One of which is a tomato drying factory. Seems like a good idea enough.

Read 15 tweets

Tinashe

@baba_nyenyedzi

28 May

1/8
Rule by terror

SI 127

So swimmingly was the Auction system that “stability” became a catch phrase in describing the state of the economy. Business leaders & economic analysts told us the second half was going to be amazing.

So one must inquire. Why SI 127?

2/8
Accordingly we were sold the following:
(i) a good agricultural season
(ii)a fixed exchange rate for 10 months resulting in decrease in inflation
(iii) Fiscal prudence
(iv) Business tours by the President showcasing successful enterprise
(v) Zimra record breaking collections

3/8
When the reality was;
(i) RBZ quasi fiscal activities & debt of US$5bn
(ii) Unsustainable Afreximbank loan interest above 10% & heavy penalty for defaulting.
(iii) Money supply increase of 535% in Jan 2021.
(iv) Black market rate > 60%
(v) A kowtowing business class

Read 9 tweets

Tinashe

@baba_nyenyedzi

19 May

Part 3

1/20
Zimbabwe and AfCFTA

In the last 2 parts we established;
(i)Trade is the movement of Capital. SA will be the oligopolist leader.

(ii) Zim’s comparative advantage is human capital. Technical skilled labour to be specific.

(iii) AfCFTA is NOT Free Movement of people

2/20
In Part 3 I wish to conclude that;
(i) Zim is not ready for free trade. Let alone one that’s oligopolistic
(ii) GOZ remains inward looking protecting a highly inefficient “local industry”. Reminiscent of UDI.
(iii) Diaspora population explosion will rescue Zim

3/20
While it is true that Comparative Advantage (CA) can lead to competitive advantage is worth considering comparative DISadvantages of a country.

This stark analysis can then help a country realize those things it does that are uncompetitive. And perhaps avoid.

Read 21 tweets

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