The survey was carried out between April and May. After the Agriculture harvest.
It comes after the WB report that 49% of citizens live under extreme poverty
It’s worth considering what the people themselves are saying.
2/10
The 67% of people believe the country is going in the wrong direction.
There is a gapping disparity between what GOZ says & lived reality.
Agriculture contributes 9.3% of GDP. A good harvest impact on our economy is now negligible. GOZ is out of touch with reality.
3/10
Does it mean GOZ will change course? Especially after launching its National Development Strategy NDS1?
Despite the rejection of NDS1 by the people, GOZ will not change direction. Because of GOZ paternalistic attitudes. Even in the face of hard facts & evidence.
4/10
62% of the rural folk, after a good harvest believed the economy is going in the wrong direction.
It is my belief, the people use 2009-2013, as their base reference. Meaning people know what a good economy is.
Without the GNU period, good economics would be a fairytale
5/10
Only 16% of people believed the Economic conditions were fairly positive.
How does one reconcile this, with Prof Mthuli’s surplus? A surplus means all is well.
Will the minister be humble & hear the concerns of the people? Guvamatanga called them shareholders. Are they?
6/10
Covid has compounded the already bad economics. 87% of people were vulnerable without regular income.
Zim economy has changed. It’s a consumption economy propelled by diaspora remittances & aid. They provide welfare support not GOZ.
GOZ barely acknowledges diaspora!
7/10
The people want Jobs. Yet economic policy does not address this. Imagine taking US$1.4bn from Exporters & handing it over to importers at 30-60% market discount.
Money wasted in consumption & NOT capital investment creating JOBS.
Price stability is a mirage. Propaganda!!
8/10
Why are NGO & Pastors trusted?
NGO’s provided direct aid to citizens. US$800m was provided in 2020 by western nations. Welfare support comes from foreigners.
Pastors are trusted because of mass therapy they conduct. People cannot afford individual therapy/hope sessions.
9/10
The President never gets proper information. It is often curated and bad news hardly comes without blaming political enemies.
The people to whom the economy is real on a daily basis are suffering & current economic course is not working. It doesn’t address savings.
10/10
Savings equal Investment. Only the diaspora & international capital can provide this gap.
Mister President, sir, your cabinet is NOT fit for purpose. Time to reshuffle. Time to connect with the people. Especially Diaspora. They keep the country afloat.
Ps
In the next survey I hope remittances will be investigated. How many families receive and how much. How frequent?
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I realize most people even Economists don’t understand risk taking. This thread hopes to bring to fore risk taking in an enterprise.
I will illustrate with an example that is familiar with many of us in Zimbabwe. A diaspora investment
2/13
Imagine a Zimbabwean working in the City in London and earning £10k a month and living a very comfortable life. No serious worries except long hours at work & the occasion rant from the girlfriend.
3/13
They visit Zim one Christmas holiday and meet up with friends. As often happens in these meet up’s- ideas are exchanged and opportunities explored. One of which is a tomato drying factory. Seems like a good idea enough.
So swimmingly was the Auction system that “stability” became a catch phrase in describing the state of the economy. Business leaders & economic analysts told us the second half was going to be amazing.
So one must inquire. Why SI 127?
2/8 Accordingly we were sold the following:
(i) a good agricultural season
(ii)a fixed exchange rate for 10 months resulting in decrease in inflation
(iii) Fiscal prudence
(iv) Business tours by the President showcasing successful enterprise
(v) Zimra record breaking collections
3/8 When the reality was;
(i) RBZ quasi fiscal activities & debt of US$5bn
(ii) Unsustainable Afreximbank loan interest above 10% & heavy penalty for defaulting.
(iii) Money supply increase of 535% in Jan 2021.
(iv) Black market rate > 60%
(v) A kowtowing business class
In the last 2 parts we established;
(i)Trade is the movement of Capital. SA will be the oligopolist leader.
(ii) Zim’s comparative advantage is human capital. Technical skilled labour to be specific.
(iii) AfCFTA is NOT Free Movement of people
2/20
In Part 3 I wish to conclude that;
(i) Zim is not ready for free trade. Let alone one that’s oligopolistic
(ii) GOZ remains inward looking protecting a highly inefficient “local industry”. Reminiscent of UDI.
(iii) Diaspora population explosion will rescue Zim
3/20
While it is true that Comparative Advantage (CA) can lead to competitive advantage is worth considering comparative DISadvantages of a country.
This stark analysis can then help a country realize those things it does that are uncompetitive. And perhaps avoid.
If what Prof Mthuli says sounds familiar it’s because we have heard it before.
“the austerity measures being implemented on the fiscal &structural sides of the economy, inflation has been targeted to decline to 50-70% by end of 2006; &to single digit by March 2007.” Dr Gono
I’m a little obsessed with Dr Gono. He was more original rather than the current crop. We should spend time going through Dr Gono’s statements. They’re pure gems & help us understand fragile state economic propaganda.
For good measure here are a few quotes from Dr Gono:
“The following deliberate efforts currently underway to enhance productivity in agriculture expected to play a supportive role in increasing food production, boosting real GDP growth & hastening the disinflation process finalization &implementation of the 99-year lease framework;
1/10
This makes for the saddest reading this year. For a number of reasons which I will articulate;
(i) Politicization & weaponizing of statistics
(ii) Technocrats reduced to water carriers.
2/10
The herald editorial makes all sorts of claims, as does many analysts given the reduction in inflation from 837.5% to 194.7% in seven months.
The editorial is dangerous. As it removes economic statistics from the realm of economics to the realm of politics.
3/10
Having failed to economically change the structural issues in the economy it seems the new strategy is to fix the output numbers. So politicians can claim success of “single digit” inflation.
The veneer becomes the perfect. This is dangerous in Economics.