Scott Santens Profile picture
Jul 7, 2021 10 tweets 7 min read Read on X
Over 10 years after the 2-year universal basic income pilot ended in Namibia, this follow-up report has been published. It includes interviews with recipients, like this one with Josef Ganeb, a bricklayer, whose business flourished during the #UBI pilot.

bignam.org/Publications/B…
Rudolphine Eigowas is a dressmaker and her business flourished too but when the pilot ended, problems born of money scarcity returned.

"I just want that they bring back the BIG, the whole Namibia must get the BIG - the problems are not only here - the whole Namibia must get it!”
Christian Swartbooi repaired shoes during the pilot. Over ten years later his eyesight prevents him from continuing that work and he wishes #BasicIncome would return.

“BIG was working.” His wife, Crecia, continues: “With the BIG we never had to suffer, but now we are suffering.”
Stephanus Eigowab was the local school director.

"What people bought is still there. And some still have small shops, where they sell food, those sort of businesses continue to work on a smaller scale. Other small businesses had to stop since people no longer have money to buy.”
Johannes Goagoseb had contracted HIV a few years before the UBI pilot began, and had been imprisoned after he was caught poaching to afford his HIV meds. The UBI pilot turned his life around. After it ended, so did his life. His brother now poaches too to feed his kids.
Sella and Alfred were able to start their own small business when the UBI pilot started.

"While the BIG was here, we continuously sold things and always kept stock. We do not have regular customers any longer, the problem is that now people do not have money to buy things."
Emilia Garises: "BIG was the best of all. BIG was actually not only N$100. If you are five people in the household, then that amounts to N$500... Some people are afraid, BIG would make us lazy, but how can income make you lazy? It is the other way around: BIG pushes you forward."
The biggest success story of all is widely regarded as being Frieda Nembwaya who started her own bakery as soon as she got her first UBI payment. All these years later, her biz remains:

“The BIG was good, this is why I am where I am now. If you have nothing, where can you start?
Frieda also experienced other forms of assistance. She was given goats by Germany, which she describes as not helping anything at all. With no nearby grazing, they were useless except for eating. Money is what helps people, and she believes the government damn well knows that.
Having reached the end of this report, one thing rings through the entire thing. Those who were part of the UBI pilot want it back, and they're extremely disappointed in Bishop Kameeta for becoming the Minister of Poverty Eradication, but not introducing UBI yet as they'd hoped.

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More from @scottsantens

Aug 22
Here's the deal about basic income and inflation: it all depends. Can UBI be inflationary? Sure, if we do it in a certain way in a certain context, but no, not in other ways and contexts. We're talking about a multivariate equation. So what are the variables? It's THREAD time! 🧵
Inflation variable 1: The amount of UBI

A $100/mo UBI is going to have a different inflationary impact than $10k/mo. The amount of UBI matters. It matters because of demand exceeding supply, but also the labor impact that can potentially reduce supply.

Poverty level is doable.
Inflation variable 2: Economic capacity

Inflation can happen when the demand for goods and services exceeds the ability to meet that demand with supply. If a country is at or over its capacity, UBI can raise prices. If there's lots of capacity, supply can meet demand. No problem
Read 17 tweets
Aug 2
Okay, everyone, here it is. I know many of you have been curious to read my take on @sama's basic income pilot results for about two full weeks now. Here's my take.

scottsantens.com/did-sam-altman…
Image
On average, those who got basic income were two percentage points less likely to be employed and worked about 1.3 fewer hours per week. These two numbers are basically where many UBI opponents and skeptics claim with triumph that this pilot was a failure.
A weekly drop of 1.3 hours works out to about 15 min a workday. That's an extra break. On an annual basis, it's equivalent to 8 days a year. That's a week-long paid vacation. An increase of 8 days would still leave the US at the bottom of all OECD nations, behind Japan by 2 days. Image
Read 14 tweets
Jun 27
Okay, I'm going to need to write a full in-depth article about this stuff, but it's already reminding me of the Finland UBI pilot and how lots of people think that failed when it didn't. It makes perfect sense to read a tweet like Noah's and think the Denver pilot failed... 🧵👇
If you look at just the right charts along with rhetoric that expresses disappointment, without reading the full reports for yourself, you can think you know all you need to know but you don't. And there are people out there who count on you not reading and understanding studies.
The Denver pilot (which is still ongoing don't forget) uses 3 groups. Group A gets $1k/mo. Group B gets $6500 in month 1 and $500/mo after that. Group C gets $50/mo. However, all groups got a phone along with a plan or a plan stipend, and all groups were connected to helpful orgs
Image
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Read 18 tweets
May 3
There's something about the debate going unsaid when we argue over whether AI will replace human labor or complement it.

If replace, then basic income is definitely needed.

If complement, then it's easy to believe we own the total value of our enhanced labor. But why is that?
If my labor is enhanced by technology, such that my work as a human contributes 10% to what I produce and a machine contributes the other 90%, then why do I deserve anything more than 10%, even if I own the machine?

Now we need to ask where the machine came from...
Robots, AI, computer hardware and software, it all came from the past. Those alive today are building on what those humans no longer with us built, who themselves built on what they were given.

Government spending was invested in all of this technology to grow and accelerate it.
Read 6 tweets
May 17, 2023
"People perceive national debt as a negative, Grey said. But instead, he argues, you can think of it as a savings account, because people are earning interest through the bonds that they hold."

Correct. The "debt" is assets, and the ceiling is just dumb.
marketplace.org/2023/05/12/cou…
It is a choice we make to issue Treasury securities $1 for $1 of federal spending that exceeds taxes. We don't have to do that, but it's popular because people like earning a US government guaranteed rate of interest.

The entire #DebtCeilingCrisis is just a hostage situation.
The US issues USD. We choose to also issue securities that pay USD interest. Our 14th Amendment says we can't default on any of our promised payments. Just keep making the payments, and we may as well also issue a $1 trillion coin to demonstrate we don't have to issue securities.
Read 5 tweets
May 15, 2023
This is good but I wish it also included how Medicare Part D doesn't even carry the same issue as the rest of Medicare because it was set up to use general revenue. It's the example that proves all that's required to "fix Social Security" is just a legislative change in wording. ImageImageImage
If we decide to reduce Social Security payments in the future, that's a political choice. We certainly don't have to do that. We can keep making 100% of payments, and no we don't even have to lift the cap on payroll taxes. We can just spend the money.

stephaniekelton.substack.com/p/what-fdr-and… ImageImage
It's really harmful how wide and how strong the myth-based belief is that the national "debt" is some big scary loan of some kind instead of being more like a savings account and how running a deficit is somehow bad regardless of what the spending is for.

evonomics.com/isnt-time-stop…
Read 4 tweets

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