Humans have always relied on odd sources of randomness as protection🎲
Today: The security of 10% of the internet is secured by a wall of lava lamps watched by a camera to generate true randomness
History: Use of divination allowed us to avoid cognitive traps by adding randomness
Article on the wall of lava lamps, to be used if “other sources of entropy are compromised”: blog.cloudflare.com/lavarand-in-pr…

Article on why relying on randomness & divination is often better for decision-making: aeon.co/essays/if-you-…
If rules you are using to make decisions are bad (either because they are biased or because you don’t have any information that would allow you to make a decision), than random decisions are better: “What lotteries are very good for is for keeping bad reasons out of decisions.”
More randomness may be good for things like awarding early stage startup funding or scientific grants. Once people have passed a certain quality threshold, attempts to further pick winners are just openings for various decision biases, as well as being wastes of everyone’s time.
This is such cool paper that I hadn’t seen: “groups with randomly selected leaders performed a survival task better than groups whose leaders were systematically selected… because [non-random] leaders assert their personal superiority at the expense of shared social identity”
Randomness can work for you, right now, by overcoming inertia. This experiment asked people considering a life decision to flip a coin on whether they should: those told by the coin to make the change often did & were significantly happier 6 months later. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
Humans find meaning in randomness. Ouija shows how we do it unconsciously & collectively: Early moves are random, but as the options for words narrow, people unconsciously work together to find meaning in the noise & guide the pointer to finish words- often without realizing it!

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Ethan Mollick

Ethan Mollick Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @emollick

27 Jun
A lesson of COVID is that a real danger to humanity comes from "boring apocalypses," where the decay of governmental capability & general dynamism result in a lower ability to adapt. This increases the chance that the next near-miss existential threat may lead to catastrophe. 1/2
This time, fast adaption saved us (Car companies retooled their assembly lines & made 80,000 ventilators! Vaccines developed in record times! Quick moves to remote work!) but also failed by many institutions. Continued decay of those poses a real threat. 2 researchgate.net/publication/32…
Near Non-Boring Apocalypses prompt action. After 9/11, it took two months to create the TSA & less for the Patriot Act, which were (at the time) responses to a potential Non-Boring Apocalypse (chemical, nuclear, bio terrorism). Similar stuff happens after nuclear accidents. 3/
Read 5 tweets
25 Jun
Noise is a remarkably insidious form of pollution: a 10db noise increase (from dishwasher to vacuum) drops productivity by 5%. But the kicker is you don't notice: noise hurts your ability to think, not your effort. You work as hard but do worse! And poorer areas have more noise.
Here's a link to the paper, which makes the point that policy is really needed to regulate noise, since people don't realize how much they are impacted by it, and so don't value quiet as much as they should: joshuatdean.com/wp-content/upl…
Also other forms of pollution also impact cognition in subtle ways. More 👇
Read 5 tweets
14 Jun
A profound understanding of technology is found in Historian Melvin Kranzberg's 6 Laws of Technology. Here they are in a 🧵

1st Law: “Technology is neither good nor bad; nor is it neutral,” many problems occur when benign technologies are used at scale. Think DDT (or Facebook) Image
2nd law: “Invention is the mother of necessity” - new technologies, as they scale, require their own suites of innovations. Self driving cars have pushed development of new sensors, phones ever better cameras, etc. This is a good rule for entrepreneurs looking for new markets.
3rd law - “Technology comes in packages, big and small” Technology is all about systems, you can’t study individual things in isolation. One issue with blockchain is that it doesn’t fit well into the social, organizational, and technical systems that it is supposed to replace.
Read 6 tweets
6 Jun
A thread on the science of stories:

Stories are persistent: this paper traces back fairy tales across languages & cultures to common ancestors, arguing that the oldest go back at least 6,000 years. One of the oldest became the myth of Sisyphus & Thanatos in ancient Greece. 1/
That may be the start: this paper argues some stories may go back 100,000 years. Many cultures, including Aboriginal Australian & Ancient Greek, tell stories of the Plaeades, the 7 sisters star cluster, having a lost star- this was true 100k years ago! 2/ dropbox.com/s/np0n4v72bdl3…
Stories share similar arcs: Analyzing 1.6k novels, this paper argues there are only 6 basic ones:
1 Rags to Riches (rise)
2 Riches to Rags (fall)
3 Man in a Hole (fall rise)
4 Icarus (rise fall)
5 Cinderella (rise fall rise)
6 Oedipus (fall rise fall) 3/
epjdatascience.springeropen.com/articles/10.11…
Read 8 tweets
4 Jun
One of my favorite scientific figures is this one of the entropy levels of 100 world cities by the orientation of streets. The cities with most ordered streets: Chicago, Miami, & Minneapolis. Most disordered: Charlotte, Sao Paulo, Rome & Singapore. Paper: appliednetsci.springeropen.com/articles/10.10…
To illustrate, here is how the maps look for Minneapolis (most ordered) & Charlotte (most disordered), rendered with this amazing tool for showing maps of roads by @anvaka: anvaka.github.io/city-roads/?q=…
Here's the cities organized by alphabetical order from the paper (by @gboeing )
Read 6 tweets
1 Jun
Challenge in social science posts: indicating when claims are causal in papers. Many papers find relationships without trying to show causality- a useful start for more research! But readers may think a causal argument is being made & complain. Good intro: alexedmans.com/blog/corporate…
Academics tend to be very careful about this language. If something is “linked” or “associated” with something else, that is not making a claim that one causes another. Neither is “predicted by” in many cases. This thread 👇 on Hill’s Criteria can help you think through claims.
And don’t get me started on “correlation isn’t causation.” Correlation could be:
✅Nothing
✅Causation or reverse causation
✅Confounding factors or omitted variables
✅Both factors lead to group selection (more men are 👩‍🚒, more 👩‍🚒 get hurt in 🔥, but 🔥doesn’t burn men more) Image
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(