When a trade goes our way, all is good. But 50% of the time , it won't. What separates a good options trader from bad is how we adjust when things do not go our way. This is why I sometimes don't post these trades at closing, I know how to adjust and escape unscathed.
But unless one has a strong grounding of the greeks and understands the nuances of this strategy, one would freeze like a deer caught in the headlights and suffer losses. It's not always possible for me to post adjustments in a fast moving markets specially in BNF
The quoted thread will give you a good idea on how an options buyer also adjusts his positions, for which I have a few iron rules 1. No extra capital must be used 2. Trade must remain define risk 3. Enough time must be there to let the trade work out
My adjustments may not seem "theoretical" what you learn in books. I have honed and made these rules by putting on 100s of trades, suffering, getting losses and learning. My knowledge is "practical", not "theoretical"
The major problem people face in adjustments is using more and more capital. This is not feasible as capital is limited for all of us retail traders. Another problem is keeping a leg at unlimited risk, this will bite you bad at one point of time or the other.
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May be in small pressure on the spread at opening, will adjust as required. Quite a few asked for the adjustment logic, will share if i require to do this.
Plan is : If opens lower, will sqoff the sold leg fully, sqoff 50% of the bought leg, will short higher OTM 50%
Did the adjustments. This screenshot was my trade before opening, the one I was holding
Sqedod off the 36000ce sold leg
sqed 50% of the 36400ce buy trade
shorted 36500ce rest 50% converting to 36400-500 bull call spread
Sqed 36500 a bit lower and shorted 36600ce
Trade now a bull call spread 36400-36600. Defined risk trade now
This tweet will create a lot of controversy 😀
But this is what the charts say : ( all rates Nifty spot) 1. Today we had a breakout 2. Tomorrow also we need to close above 15840 for this breakout to be valid ( Dow's two consecutive day closing rule)
3. Flag breakout with target 16840 by 20th Aug 2021 4. SL : close below 15779
What makes this very interesting is the high Risk-reward ratio. Risk can be easily controlled by appropriate options strategies
RSI has given a breakout. But again, wait for this breakout to confirm by tomorrow's closing
Went home with a 36000ce-36400ce call backspread ( 1:2) 15th July expiry at Rs.8 debit.
If something major positive happens, a jump up in BNF should give good profits. If nothing happens and BNF gaps down, will be out with a small loss or adjust trade
Though this is a bullish view trade, if BNF gaps down big then will be minimal loss or can be even a small profit :) And I do have a smart adjustment plan if the trade goes against me
But BNF options liquidity has gone to the dogs :( Getting 1000 qty at a single rate is a huge pain
For Quantifying Breakouts students, my warning should have been enough. MFI signalled a breakout buy almost at lows :)
Plus clear MFI divergence
( I don't prefer showing magic, everything has a logic)
Will take this ON 😀 Straddle and strangle selling has higher POP, true. But if that method has that small risk of a single event blowing up your capital, you will blow up at one point of time unless you manage position size conservatively
1. Vol when it goes up will cover the time decay 2. Volatility is mean reverting,yes. But how does one know other than guessing that it will mean revert from here ? high vols are no guraantee for mean reversion
2a. At low IVs, the probability of long options succeeding increases exponentially. Why would I sell ?