Thread by @friedberg

north america is in the midst of a worsening mega drought, increasing the probability that any of a number of events could lead to a black swan-like economic/social crisis... (1/n)

first, h/t to @pkedrosky for being such a consummate source of data on this topic. in april 2020, scientists alerted us to an emerging "North American megadrought" detailing 2000-2018 as the driest period in 500+ years science.sciencemag.org/content/368/64… (2/n)

since that paper’s publication, conditions have worsened:
(3/n)

2020 was the hottest year on record in CA & realized the largest number acres burned (4.4M). it's estimated that actual uninsured + economic cost of 2020 wildfire season was $130B-$150B from property loss, clean up costs, & business shutdowns
nfpa.org/News-and-Resea…
(4/n)

temperatures in 2021 are reaching unprecedented levels.. well beyond what any model predicted in even the most “extreme” scenarios. BC recorded several 120F+ high temp days, a value several standard deviations away from a predicted max temp

https://twitter.com/RARohde/status/1410157638109872134

(5/n)

rainfall/snowfall was so low this past winter & temperatures have been so high that california’s snowpack reached 0% statewide by june 1, a record
sfgate.com/bayarea/articl…
(6/n)

hot dry weather has left california with “fuel moisture conditions” at a level never before seen in the historical record for this time of year. vegetation across the entire western US appears to be a tinder box

https://twitter.com/FireWeatherLab/status/1410310188293234690

(7/n)

unprecedented drought conditions are dwindling water supplies, devastating farms and rural communities
npr.org/2021/06/09/100…
yaleclimateconnections.org/2021/06/califo…
bloomberg.com/news/features/…
(8/n)

looking forward, we face increased fire risk, decreased water availability, decreased river streamflow (decreasing available power on the grid), increasing temps (increasing demand for power), and conditions that are unsafe for workers and children to simply be outside… (9/n)

dry fuel, warm temperatures, and the unprecedented drought conditions means the western united states is now facing the second earliest occurrence of a “level 4” national preparedness for significant woodland fire
predictiveservices.nifc.gov/outlooks/month…
(10/n)

california towns facing dry wells and complete loss of water may be a sign of a bigger problem with many more communities at risk.. calmatters.org/california-div…
(11/n)

11% of california’s power comes from hydroelectric power generation which depends on streamflow in rivers and reservoirs fed by sierra snowpack. low snowpack means hydroelectric power generation down 71% from 2019
watereducation.org/aquapedia/hydr…
eia.gov/todayinenergy/…
(12/n)

furthering the power problem in CA, is the increasing demand for AC (the primary variable in power demand) … demand for more power and less power available inevitably leads to blackouts
wsj.com/articles/calif…
(13/n)

if we have more fires, exposure to wildfire smoke can cause severe short and long-term health effects on adults and children, including mortality risk, and risk of low birth weight in pregnant women
nature.com/articles/s4137…
(14/n)

outdoor workers can not work when AQI exceeds 150 (typical on wildfire days) or temps are 110F+. 3M+ CA workers work outside. hot days and/or high AQI could lead to massive loss of worker income and/or employer revenue.
lhsfna.org/index.cfm/life…
osha.gov/heat/heat-index
(15/n)

consequentially, property, jobs, & businesses are at risk; food prices are inflating, water security is diminishing. some/none of these risks may manifest, but there are enough non-zero probability scenarios that aggregate risk of serious catastrophe seems significant.
(16/n)

unfortunately, we may be desensitizing ourselves to new (more common) extreme weather events, exacerbating the problem set as we fail to prepare appropriately
pnas.org/content/116/11…
(17/n)

speculation:
1) we could see world’s first large-scale climate migration under these conditions. western states residents move east or north
2) reliable distributed power becomes a necessity, fueling years of growth for on-premise solar/gas generators and battery systems
(18/n)

3) further water restrictions drive up specialty crop prices and increases demand for specialty crops produced outside of the CA central valley
4) CA governor recall election hinges on management of the fire season and rolling blackouts
(19/n)

5) already tight labor markets, coupled with less “outdoor days” to work could drive construction costs even higher in the west
6) FireTech/AirTech becomes bigger silicon valley category in 2021
7) Earth becomes Mars if we don’t get our shit together
(20/n)

preparing for the season:
0) no politics. all in it together. win or lose
1) clear policy now-set distinction btwn private/public loss share so it’s not a debate/battle later. who pays cost of uninsured building lost to fire? who pays for lost labor due to bad air days? (21/n)

2) immediately build community centers ready and pre-supplied w water, generators, portable ACs
3) buy+supply 100M+ N95 masks for high AQI days to all residents for free. ppl should not be outside breathing wildfire air — the short and long-term costs are too high. (22/n)

4) forest mgmt wont save us (50M+ acres + too much work to do w/o enough time). some work is good but diminishing returns in this area at scale.
5) 1/3 of housing is at intersection of forestland. housing should not be built here if taxpayers pay for losses on property (23n)

6) longer-term, infrastructure spending should not go to rural broadband and roads. we need systems of energy production, materials, and food production that are distributed, low-carbon, and create jobs for americans while increasing power/water/food/clean air/temp security (fin)