I will be infrequently tweeting going forward, but here are my opening missives on @realmoney yesterday:
Jul 07, 2021 | 10:00 AM EDT DOUG KASS
What's Up With the 10 Year Yield?
* Hitting a yield of 1.35% this morning - the 10 year note price has defied consensus expectations
* The drop in yields has spurred a strong pivot back to growth (from value) in recent trading sessions - see Amazon's amazing advance
* Three prominent economists provide solid reasons for the recent decline in the 10 year yield and the rise in its price
Jul 07, 2021 | 09:30 AM EDT DOUG KASS
Beware of False Prophets
"Beware of false prophets, who come to you in sheep's clothing but inwardly are ravenous wolves."
- Matthew 7:15
In a maturing bull market, contrarian views can be enlightening.
I will again note how critical one
should look at "Group Stink" especially if, in fact, we are in the late stages of the market's advance.
All we have to do is look at some of the heavily promoted, universally loved, popular and former market leaders -- and how poorly their share prices have recently fared.
For more than a decade I have done my best to communicate value added analysis on Twitter but I not only get nothing in return - I get vitriol and hate.
I have tried to communicate with the good fish - but it is impossible with sharks swimming around me constantly.
Perhaps it is me - but, for whatever reason, I probably will now take a lengthy leave from Twitter.
I have no need to build my 'franchise' on Twitter nor am I trying to sell a service to tweeps.
I am no longer interested in continued criticism of Fin TV or "talking
heads" who never met a market they didn't like, exude uber confidence (despite a complex investment mosaic), memorize superficial bullet points (in reaction to questions) and chronically sweep their mistakes under the carpet.
I will not change them. They will sling their BS
@TSTRMPro
Jun 28, 2021 | 12:51 PM EDT DOUG KASS
We're at a Moment of Unreasonable Confidence
* Is it time to expect the unexpected?
* Too much "group stink" and "first level thinking" has invaded the markets
* As an example, just look at the shares of General Motors ($GM) and
Delta Air Lines ($DAL) - both have been the subject of near universal optimism in the financial media and elsewhere (read: they are rolling over)
* Does it makes sense to be uber confident in view after a near doubling in the averages over the last 16 months?
* Always consider
upside reward vs. downside risk - especially when few others are!
"To expect the unexpected shows a thoroughly modern intellect."
- Oscar Wilde
The pervasive and foul odor of "Group Stink" continues.
Importantly it is being delivered with extreme confidence and lives in a
@realmoney@tomkeen@jimcramer
Jun 25, 2021 | 10:14 AM EDT DOUG KASS
Shorted QQQ!
* At $349.70
The many Group Stinkers that worship at the altar of price momentum (read: Fin TV, money managers, scribes, commentators, etc.) universally liked Amazon (AMZN) and its price action
up to this week.
We witnessed the adulation incessantly in business media platforms as Amazon's shares continued to move from the lower left to the upper right.
This recalls Divine Ms M's wonderful pinned tweet:
"There is nothing like price to change sentiment."
While I am
quite optimistic about Amazon over the next several years, I cautioned on AMZN on Wednesday - citing three potentially significant headwinds over the near term.
Today league leading Amazon is down another - $45/share after being down by about -$60/share on Thursday.
@realmoney The Market is No Longer An Eating Sardine, It is A Trading Sardine
* The trader in me says the market has a slight upside bias after several recent successful tests
* But the fundamentalist in me says the market has alot of downside risk
* When in such a conflict
and conviction is blurry, I tend to trade (and make short term rentals) rather than invest for the longer term (and avoid positioning out into too far into the future)
"There is the old story about the market craze in sardine trading when the sardines disappeared from their
traditional waters in Monterey, California. The commodity traders bid them up and the price of a can of sardines soared. One day a buyer decided to treat himself to an expensive meal and actually opened a can and started eating. He immediately became ill and told the seller the
I remain a non consensus bitcoin bear:
The problem with fiat currencies, like the U.S. dollar, is that monetary authorities can create an unlimited amount of new dollars or other currencies - making it look, to some, like a Ponzi scheme.
The problem with crypto currencies,
like bitcoin and ethereum, is that anyone can make an unlimited number of new crypto currencies - making it, too, look to some like a Ponzi scheme.
Ponzi schemes and scams are only visible to those that have no sense of history or want to believe in magic.
I believe
Most sold first and asked questions later regarding the Coinbase $1.25 convertible offering announced last night. yahoo.com/lifestyle/coin… The details of the deal (a likely low interest rate, wide conversion premium and, most importantly, the capped call transactions) - makes
the deal have very little dilution. I added on the weakness and I wrote on @realmoney it is a very smart