Five perils of momentum investing you cannot ignore ift.tt/2T1QzFW
To provide my addition to this. This is the actual performance of this in the @CapMindWealth PMS which @calminvestor runs at @capitalmind_in
@CapMindWealth @CalmInvestor @capitalmind_in This is post fees and charges and STT and all. But income taxes are separate. The point is this:

Read the article first. Too many people show you the returns first.
If you have been in the markets long enough, you know that every strategy will have its great days and horrible days. Usually both last for uncomfortably long amounts of time.

Sometimes you're the pigeon, sometimes you're the statue.
You can build stories in momentum, if you like. This is my account at the CM PMS. Since I also add money each month, the first stock was bought over a period time roughly 7 months (The "Avg..." is the average buy price)

Can say electric vehicles, great company, Tata as story.
But the perils are there: lack of a story you feel comfortable with.
Why did you buy?
Oh, it hit a new high.
That's not me. I sell at a high and wait for lower level

Sounds intelligent, but you mentally wonder how long to wait if he sold at 2000 and stock's now at 4000.
And @CalmInvestor is so right about the fear of being wrong. When a stock refuses to behave, you don't hold on until you're right; you walk away and find something else that's moving up.

It's all right to be wrong. Not so much to stay wrong.
There are different ways to make money from the markets. There are even ways to just derive satisfaction from telling people that someone else's strategy doesn't work, which is fine if it makes them happy.

Everyone gets what they want from the market. (Seykota)

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More from @deepakshenoy

30 Jun
Even if the system is gamed in a few cases (Videcon, Siva etc), I think the IBC process is a very good thing for India to develop. Quoting low "recovery" rates is not the correct way to look at it, IMHO. (Thread)
Often quoted are recovery rates like 20%, 10% or even 3%. We must note that banks often pile up penal charges, interest after the account was NPA, and other fees as part of their "ask" - and this can be more than 50% or 60% of the amount they want!
The banks are also gaming this by demanding as high as they can. Penal interest and interest after account turns NPA are not to be accounted, but banks can demand them in a resolution process. This inflates the amount demanded, but banks don't expect this to be paid.
Read 14 tweets
28 Jun
New projects: guarantee cover for loans for new projects, interest rate capped at 7.95% for health sector and 8.25% for other sectors.
This is good because it is not cash outflow from govt. You put a project, you have to default first only then will govt pay. But at 7.5% you should find it easy to not default.
MFI based new lending to be supported. This can be complicated. All defaulters with less than 90 days can apply => no NPA people will be covered.
Read 12 tweets
25 Jun
I feel like the song "Cats in the cradle" again. The layman investor in 2000. The guy who knew (in 2007) that things would hit the fan, but not exactly how.

And the guy who's worried about the market now in 2021 - and the only lesson he's learnt is "Participate."
In 2007, October 29, I was like - what are these people afraid of? Make merry while the sun shines. Too focussed on "value" I said: capitalmind.in/2007/10/so-its…
And then, in just a few days more, I'd decided it was going to be over. November 10, 2007, wishing everyone Happy Diwali: capitalmind.in/2007/page/3/
Read 6 tweets
15 Jun
Understanding India's bankruptcy laws needs more nuance. A company like Patanjali that takes loans on its own balance sheet to buy a Ruchi Soya, doesn't mean the banks are lending to Ruchi Soya.
Patanjali also has to pledge the Ruchi Soya shares it purchases, as part of that deal. Apart from those shares, there are corporate guarantees. If it doesn't service the loan, banks can sell the shares, if that's not enough, they should invoke the guarantee.
In general, any bankruptcy purchaser will want to fund the purchase partly by equity, partly by debt, and it's quite likely the same banks provide the debt; to them, it's actually a different borrower.
Read 4 tweets
15 Jun
Don't buy Videocon. The resolution plan is out. You will get ZERO rupees.
The NCLT order, now public, says this: First step, delist. Some mergers etc. later, fifth step: WRITE OFF ALL CAPITAL TO ZERO. NIL. (Images attached)

Again: YOU WILL LOSE ALL YOUR MONEY IN VIDEOCON SHARES.
Yesterday people were complaining how a rumour brought down Adani group shares.

Today when you have real news from a court that Videocon shares are going to zero, it's on Upper Circuit.

You gotta love markets.
Read 5 tweets
9 Jun
We decode the massive 512.5 cr. fine on Franklin Templeton, by SEBI in an order, on the debt funds that were shuttered unilaterally by the AMC in April 2020.

capitalmind.in/2021/06/decodi…
A few follow ups: We had posted in December on a thread about what action we hoped SEBI would take, and I'm glad to say that SEBI has been incredibly open and listened.
Our original post when the funds where shut: capitalmind.in/2020/04/the-fr…
Read 4 tweets

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