(1) This thread looks into the latest briefing No. 18 of Public Health England on #Covid #Delta cases and deaths.
Until 25 June 257 people have died within 25 days of a positive test, 92 were unvaccinated, 163 had at least one shot and for 2 the status is unknown(??)
Until 25 June 257 people have died within 25 days of a positive test, 92 were unvaccinated, 163 had at least one shot and for 2 the status is unknown(??)
(2) Preliminary Case Fatality Rate (CFR) is 0.21%. Among the <50 years of age, the rate is lower for the unvaccinated (0.03%) compared to the fully vaccinated (0.04%). For the > 50, CFR is 2.5 times higher for the unvaccinated (5.6%) than for the fully vaccinated (2.22%)
(3) Compared to the previous briefings, CFR for the fully vaccinated has increased by 0.45 percentage points, for the unvaccinated only by 0.03 PP. It is also disturbing, that among the >50, the CFR for the fully vaccinated is 2.4 times higher than for those with only 1 dose
(4) The report also shows, that the (preliminary) CFR of the Delta variant (0.2%) is much lower than that of the Alpha variant (1.9%), that has so far been the main Covid variant. So far the data does not support, that Delta is that much more deadly
(5) The quality of the report is poor: i) case numbers don't add up, ii) death within 28 days of a positive test can mean death from / with / unrelated to Covid, iii) there is no information, on how many cases are resolved (through recovery or death) and how many are pending,
(6) iv) no information is provided on obesity and underlying conditions, v) to divide the population just in two groups, < 50 and >50, is insufficient, vi) information on why the unvaccinated > 50 were not vaxxed is missing
(7) We need more quality information. Without it, so far there appears to be no need for the <50 to get vaxxed, even without considering adverse vaccine effects. The case for the >50 is un clear. It certainly doesn't convince us to get vaccinated
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