CML Pro members, we have an updated little post on $PINS in Community.

/1
$PINS

If we use the Historical Estimates Tools in CML Pro (available to you for free), we see that analysts, in the past, have had a hard time keeping up with Pinterest’s actual growth versus analyst estimates:

/2
To put it into words:

In July of 2020, the consensus analyst estimates for fiscal 2022 and 20023 revenue for Pinterest were $2.1B and $2.4B, respectively.

We note that the implied estimate of growth from 2022 to 2023 was about 14%.

/3
$PINS

Today, the estimates for the exact same years of 2022 and 2023 are $3.4B and $4.6B.

So, analysts have risen their full year 2022 and 2023 revenue estimates by 62% and 92%, respectively while now implying 35% growth between 2022 and 2023 up from 14%.

/4
$PINS It’s was a radical discombobulation that hit the analyst community in 2020 and it is now getting straightened out.

At the same time that revenue estimates were abruptly raised, so too adjusted EBITDA estimates came higher.

/5
$PINS

$Adjusted EBITDA estimates for fiscal 2022 and 2023 have been raised 400% (976/193) for 2022 and 426% (1544/293) for 2023.

There we have what appears to be another complete reordering of thought from the analyst community.

6/
$PINS

We don’t think we will see such a dramatic change to Wall Street’s consensus estimates for Pinterest as we have in the last year, but we have circumstantial evidence that the company is underappreciated.

Get more here: bit.ly/CMLPro

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More from @OphirGottlieb

1 Jul
A thread on the option speculation webinar today:

(The link to register for free is at the end of this thread).

Make sure this is what you want, or it's not a good use of your time, which I do honor.

...

/1
Two conclusions will come from this webinar.

A group that will say, ‘ya know, that was great, but I don’t want to speculate with options now that I see what that phrase actually means for a successful trader.’

...

/2
And I so dearly honor that point of view. It is a high intellect point of view, in my opinion.

Then there will be a group that will say, ‘shit, this is hard, but I want to do it. It’s worth it.’

/3
Read 9 tweets
28 Jun
A thread on the underappreciated importance of a user base on a platform that in its early stages isn't necessarily very impressive and/or doesn't necessarily have an obviously profitable direction.

/1
Let's start with $TWLO, which I am long.

At first, if we just hush up all the fantastical names that non technologists and amateur investors threw around (like CPaaS), it was really just this:

/2
1. A very clean and easy API.
2. To send text messages (SMS).

Blah, blah the rah, rah, that's what it was.

It filled a need and it did so very, very easily, but it wasn't a business in and of itself that was obviously profitable.

/3
Read 38 tweets
23 Jun
A short thread..

Somethings that some institutions definitely get while some do not, and therefore some non institutional investors don't get while some do:

/1
Think of a website with room for four advertisements but only two are taken (for example).

This leads to lower CPMs in short term as well as slack.

But advertising follows eyeballs (just ask the $FB bears in 2010).

/2
The eyeballs are on streaming TV and they are coming from (1) linear TV (2) AND the web.

As @theinformation noted today, 12% of YouTube ads used to be viewed on CTV. Now they are at 40%.

/3
Read 16 tweets
11 Jun
Thread

$GLBE

Anyone doing actual analysis (would love to see it).

Profit margin (in long term) starts with gross margin. then gets smaller to bottom line.

But, for young companies, operating margin doesn't matter yet.

What does matter is the aspiration in 5+ years.

...

/1
$GLBE

...

So, we can start with GM as our 'max' and then worry about the rest later.

When I look at this company, with 5 minutes of effort, so *very* little effort, I see something icky...

...

/2
$GLBE

Gross Margin per cent:

$GLBE: 31%
-
$SHOP 54%
$BIGC 79%
$JMIA 69%
$WISH 61%

I don't know the business well enough to even comment other than, 'well that's low.'

Perhaps it's just a matter of time. But, generally GM% hits close to scale very quickly as we see above

/3
Read 6 tweets
11 Jun
$JMIA Huawei’s Petal Search (like Google Search) Now Features a Direct Link to e-Commerce Site Jumia wp.me/p5eCF5-96o via @TechTrendsKE
$JMIA And now Huawei has announced a partnership with Africa’s e-commerce leader Jumia. The partnership will enable customers searching for products on the Petal Search shopping channel to conveniently click through to the Jumia product page and buy instantly. 

/2
$JMIA

“Huawei equipment makes up something like 70% of wireless broadband infrastructure across Africa, and it has a close relationship with mobile network operators throughout the continent,” says Arthur Goldstuck, managing director at researcher World Wide Worx.

/3
Read 7 tweets
10 Jun
$PINS Slow shoppers spend more business.pinterest.com/shopping/?utm_…
-
While other sites hurry people to convert, Pinterest invites them to browse.

Ppl on Pinterest are 35% more likely to take a week to make purchase decisions, and spend 2x more per month than people on other platforms.
$PINS

...

If you miss the slow shoppers, you leave money on the table. People on Pinterest spend 6% more per order and put 85% more in their baskets, compared to people on other platforms. via @pinterestbiz

...

/2
$PINS

People on Pinterest are 75% more likely to say they're always shopping, vs. people on other platforms. 

Pinterest was designed for this: shopping features are built into both the organic Pinner experience, and our ad solutions.

via @pinterestbiz

...

/3
Read 5 tweets

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