Tomi Profile picture
9 Jul, 12 tweets, 6 min read
1/ Thread: Some of the #IEM games have seemingly lasted forever, so I went through two extreme examples to understand the breakdown of time.

Summary: Counter-Strike needs rule changes to make it more viewer friendly for a growing part of the audience. @CSGO
2/ Astralis vs FaZe (nuke only)

Actual game: 1h 14m 38s / 71%
Freezetime: 15m 40s / 15%
Total game: 1h 30m 18s / 86%
Tech: 4m 30s / 4%
Timeouts: 4m / 4%
Breaks: 6m 26s / 6%

Total: 1h 45m 14s

Series ended 2-0, but lasted over 3h 7m (due to OT). #IEM
3/ Liquid vs mouz (inferno only) #IEM

Actual game: 1h 35m 58s / 70%
Freezetime: 17m 40s / 13%
Total game: 1h 53m 38s / 82%
Tech: 12m / 9%
Timeouts: 4m / 3%
Breaks: 8m 17s / 6%

Total: 2h 17m 55s

Series went the distance (incl. OT), and took over 4h 50m (!) to finish. #IEM
4/ The fundamental issue with Counter-Strike is that when games can last as little as 2h or as much as 5h, the only way to plan your schedule around it is to cancel everything else, which isn't realistic for most adults.

Shorter games would drive more viewership. #IEM
5/ How can you get there? Start by going back to MR12.

We moved to MR15 ~20 years ago because pistol rounds were too important -- that is no longer the case; in fact the economy is far less relevant overall.

Teams would adjust, and variance wouldn't really increase much. #IEM
6/ The current OT rules also need adjustment, as they cause the largest swings.

@SPUNJ recently had a good suggestion on how to potentially reduce the length of OT. There are also others, but we first need to decide to act. #IEM
7/ Finally, we should consider reducing the length of freezetime and timeouts (sorry, production and coaches). And perhaps these games were outliers, but they make me worried about the average tech pauses in an offline(!) environment. We need to do better. #IEM
8/ To summarize:

Reducing the average length of games and making it less variable would drive an increase in viewership and likely in fan engagement overall, as more non-hardcore fans could plan their schedules around matches.

First step is acknowledging the problem. #IEM @CSGO
Addendum: I would also run some PIP commercials to decrease break lengths.

Also, the reason VP and COL could go to a 3rd map starting around 2AM local time is because the earlier games, inclusive of OTs, took way too long -- the day started at 1:30PM local time. #IEM
Addendum 2, for the "pistol rounds decide games in MR12" crowd:

Addendum 3: Rationale for why this matters a lot more than sone give it credit for
Addendum 4: What if I told you that on top of all of this, TOs generally don’t schedule with teams’ geographical presence in mind, thus further alienating would-be-viewers? #IEM

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More from @tomi

10 Jul
1/ To help shine some light on the magnitude of the Counter-Strike ecosystem's issues, TO losses in 2019-2020 per public filings:
- ESL ~$80mm (incl. all games)
- BLAST ~$25mm

Combine team losses, and the ecosystem (excl. Valve) is easily losing upwards of $50mm/year.
2/ Worth noting that 2020 was actually the better year financially for ESL -- they were able to keep much of their sponsorships/revenue with significantly reduced costs, driven by layoffs and lack of offline events.

2019 was *worse* than 2020. Scary for return to "normal."
3/ Why are investors (note: not VC funds -- primarily family offices, strategics, etc.) funding this?

Assuming continuous growth (my pinned tweet's article explains some of the high-level rationale for industry as a whole), eventually this turns into a lucrative media business.
Read 20 tweets
14 May 20
1/ THREAD: I believe the increasing length of matches is becoming a problem in Counter-Strike.

Maps used to run at most 40-45 minutes with BO3 series often finishing in ~2h30. Now +4 hours long series are common, as we’ve recently seen with matches running late into the night.
2/ Various fundamental rule changes have led to a gradual increase in match length in the past years. There include increases in:

- freezetime
- roundtime
- bomb timer
- timeouts
- half-time break

While each alone is relatively minor, cumulatively the impact is meaningful.
3/ In addition, the modern economy in CS:GO appears to make matches more drawn out – teams don’t tend to get blown out because there are fewer save rounds, leading to an increase in rounds played per map on average, compounding the impact of each individual change outlined above.
Read 21 tweets
26 Apr 20
1/ THREAD: With sports on pause globally, there's talk about esports (competitive gaming) being a beneficiary, as many tournaments and competitions can be held online and thus take place, albeit in a different setting, regardless of restrictions imposed on society by COVID-19.
2/ Over the past few years, we’ve seen an increasing number of headline-worthy comparisons between traditional sports and esports, many of them comparing apples to oranges, at best, if we're being generous.
3/ Examples include comparing total unique viewers who tuned in even for a second across a week(s) long tournament on a free online live stream, to pay-TV AMA for a 3 hour game, or even worse – those who attended the Super Bowl in person.
Read 34 tweets
29 Dec 19
1/ THREAD: Weak 1H 2020 will put significant pressure on current FY2020 and FY2021 consensus estimates, which should weigh on the share price in the coming quarters and risk changing the growth narrative.

Other risks are merely the icing on the cake (disc: short). Image
2/ Following 31% q/q deliveries decline in Q1 (as US M3 backlog was exhausted and Europe deliveries had not started en masse), managed to grow deliveries sequentially from Q1’s low base throughout the rest of FY2019.
3/ Q4 will follow Q2 and Q3 in setting new deliveries records, this time at >110k, driven by geographic expansion, release of RHD M3 and expiration of various tax incentives (NL, US FIT).

However, will barely hit the lower end of its delivery guidance of 360-400k in FY2019
Read 26 tweets
25 May 19
1/ Finally read the Kotaku esports bubble article.

I'm obviously biased, with a vested interest in the industry (and teams in particular) doing well, but I think the text missed the mark in many ways.

Thread below, focusing on the team (arguably most criticized) POV.
2/ Much like with other fast-growing, nascent industries, there are of course plenty of bad actors (see e.g. @DenialEsports) who use the apples to kiwis comparisons (differing viewership metrics, full events vs. single games, etc.), but it doesn't mean it's standard practice.
3/ From my experience, the smaller teams (w/ most to gain) tend to play more fast and loose, whereas the bigger teams (w/ most to lose) tend to be more conservative with data, assumptions, etc.

Bad actors can exist anywhere, but faking numbers isn't a viable long-term strategy.
Read 22 tweets
19 Feb 19
1/ Thread with my updated view of $TSLA. With two quarters of positive GAAP net income and cash flow, the longs are out celebrating victory en masse, but it seems premature.

How well is $TSLA doing now? Feedback and comments welcome. $TSLAQ (disc: short)
2/ Executive departures have been a red flag at $TSLA for a long time, but Q4 earnings call’s shocker of CFO Deepak Ahuja leaving and being replaced by 34-year-old Zach Kirkhorn (with 2 months as VP Finance under his belt) raised these questions once more.
3/ Previous Finance departures during the two most successful quarters in $TSLA’s history?

CAO – Dave Morton
VP Worldwide Finance & Operations – Justin McAnear
Senior Manager, Finance & Operations EMEA – Alex Buhr
Read 32 tweets

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